All the autumn we haven’t had until now will hit us squarely. And it is summed up in one word: ‘bombogenesis’

When the day ends, the first big storm of the season will have made its debut in Spain. As I write, the extreme waves and strong gusts are already noticeable in the Cantabrian Sea.

But that’s just the beginning: just after Benjamina river of humidity will reactivate precipitation on Saturday and will shift the activity towards the Mediterranean on Sunday. And all this, while the continent’s meteorological agencies have their eyes on the Bay of Biscay where a bombogenesis threatens to turn half of Europe upside down.

But let’s go step by step.

The countdown. A small chronology of what is going to fall upon us:

• Thursday, October 23. Today we will experience the peak of the maritime storm and the gusts of wind will be very strong in the Cantabrian Sea. AEMET has activated the red warning. In the late afternoon, rains will be more frequent in Galicia and the northern facade.
• Friday, October 24. The storm will move towards Scandinavia, but its exit coincides with the arrival of a jet of humidity that will connect the Peninsula with the Gulf of Mexico.
• Saturday, October 25. This is precisely what will reactivate the fronts near Spain and, ultimately, will initiate a whole series of locally strong and persistent rainfall in the center, west and north of the country.
• Sunday, October 26. These fronts will cross towards the Mediterranean and, on their way, will cause a drop in temperature, numerous showers and the first snowfalls.

And then… bombogenesis. Is another way to call ‘explosive cyclogenesis’; that is, “a meteorological phenomenon that describes the rapid and intense formation of a cyclone or storm in a very short period of time.” In technical terms, we are talking about an explosive intensification of an extratropical storm (pressure drop below 24 hPa in 24 hours at mid-latitudes).

Is that what we are going to see? Right now, the likely scenario is that bombogenesis is located to the north (between the Bay of Biscay, the English Channel and the North Sea) with the deepest core far from the national territory. Here their fronts and the sea in the background will reach us.

On paper, the phenomenon is most likely to spread into Europe, but it is autumn. Spring and autumn are always difficult seasons to model and that means that we can be surprised at any time.

What happens is that then the party begins. Needless to say, looking at what the models say beyond these days is meteorology-fiction. However, there is a possibility that this opens a small door through which different Atlantic storms can sneak in.

Image | Tropical TidBits

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