Not only has the US just lost the “eye” that Hormuz watched, its nuclear aircraft carrier is in Africa for fear of being shot down
Year 2019, an American surveillance drone more than 200 million of dollars disappears from the radar over the Gulf of Oman and, a few hours later, Iran shows its remains to the world on television. It was not the first time something like this had happened, but it was one of the most uncomfortable: a machine designed to see everything had been seen before it could react. Since then, in that part of the map, each silence in the systems begins to weigh more than it seems. Losing the “eye” that watched Hormuz. Confirmation of the fall of MQ-4C Triton a few hours ago is not a simple technical incident, but the loss of one of the most advanced pieces of the US surveillance system in the Persian Gulf. This drone, capable of operating at high altitude for hours and equipped with cutting-edge sensors, was key to monitor naval movementsdetect threats and maintain situational control around the strait. His disappearance, under circumstances still unclearleaves a most uncomfortable void at a time when every piece of information matters, especially in an environment where mines, drones and speedboats turn any mistake into a real threat. The “scared” aircraft carrier. Plus: the diversion of USS George H.W. Bush Going around Africa instead of crossing the Suez Canal is not just any logistical decision, but a symptom of that operational vulnerability What Washington is suffering from. The reason? Avoid passing through Bab el-Mandeb It means recognizing that even a nuclear aircraft carrier battle group, one of the most powerful assets in the world, cannot guarantee their security in a strait where actors such as the Houthis have demonstrated the ability to attack ships with drones and missiles. This detour not only lengthens times and complicates deployments, but also shows that military superiority does not always translate into freedom of movement. The uncomfortable precedent. Not only that. They counted the Forbes analysts that the decision of avoid Bab el-Mandeb It raises a disturbing question for the immediate future, because if this step is already considered too dangerous, what happens to Hormuz, much narrower, guarded and saturated with Iranian defensive systems? The logic is a huge question. Iran not only has more advanced technology than its regional allies, but also decades of specific preparation for that scenario. That makes any attempt to operate there a very high risk betand where even a single relevant impact could completely alter the strategic balance of the area. The strategic paradox. If you also want, what emerges from these movements is not that image of overflowing force that is presupposed, but rather of calculation and extreme fear. While American political discourse speaks of pressure, blockade and control, tactical decisions are revealing prudence, we would even say caution. The simple fact that the route of a nuclear aircraft carrier is redesigned to avoid a hot spot shows that the margin of error it’s tiny. And in an environment where a successful attack on a high-value ship could trigger disproportionate military and political consequences, the priority is no longer projecting strength and power, but avoiding losses at all costs. When losing a little is too much. In summary, the combination of drone crash Triton and the rnuclear aircraft carrier odeo paints a crystal clear picture: right now, the United States is not operating from a position of comfort, but rather in an extremely delicate balance. In that scenario, it doesn’t take a devastating blow to change the rules of the game, just with a symbolic one. Because a lost surveillance drone may be acceptable, even if it has the characteristics of the MQ-4C, but a damaged warship or a compromised nuclear aircraft carrier would be a very different story. Image | USN In Xataka | The US already has the first response to its blockade of Hormuz: a boomerang of unpredictable consequences called China In Xataka | The US has closed all exits from the Strait of Hormuz. And now Iran can put into practice what it has been preparing for 25 years