Twelfth

The weather models are slowly beginning to give us a vision of what is going to happen in these first days of January, and the reality is that we are already looking forward to a Three Kings’ night. with really low temperatures and even snow cover. Something that responds to the arrival of the storm Francisan anticyclonic block at high latitudes and an outbreak of continental polar air. The clash of masses. For a heavy snowfall to occur on the Iberian Peninsula, it is not enough for it to be cold, but humidity is also needed. That is why the scenario they propose GFS models and ECMWF for this January 2026 it is, technically, textbook. All this because an anticyclone has been installed in northern Europe and arctic areas, which forces very cold air to move south, directly towards Spain. While this cold settles on the peninsula, we must not forget about the storm Francis that enters from the southwest loaded with humidity. And when Francis’ humidity collides with the “wall” of frigid air already over the peninsula, a so-called “mass clash” occurs. This is where it turns into snow generally at very low levels. The AEMET. In his special prediction For these important dates, the meteorology agency indicates that this Friday the 2nd the rains will reach the Canary Islands and to the west of the peninsula. But it will be on January 3 when rainfall will be very abundant in western Andalusia, with snowfall at low levels in the north. But the truly interesting thing is between Sunday, January 4 and Tuesday, January 6, Three Kings’ Day, where heavy and persistent rains are expected in the south and east of the Peninsula. The highlight may be the snowfall in the eastern and central part of the peninsula, which the AEMET points out that can be important with a large drop in temperatures. Arrival of unusual snowfall. The “postcard” of Three Kings with snow is plausible in a good part of the country, although highly conditioned by the orography and some details of Francis’ career. In the south, for example, AEMET and local media report a drop in the snow level of up to 400 m in provinces like Granada either Malagawith minimums below 5 °C in capitals and negative values ​​in the interior, which opens the door to snowfall in areas where they are uncommon. In the center and east of the peninsula, the coldest scenarios place the level around 400–500 meters during January 4 and 5 and snow at medium or low levels in the southeastern quadrant, eastern Iberia, the east of the southern plateau or the Baetics; In the north and northwest, the posterior maritime polar mass keeps the snow in the mountains and could leave significant accumulations in systems such as the Montes de León. The American GFS model has come to propose for the Three Kings Day environment snow accumulations of more than 30 cm in the province of Toledo and greater than 40 cm in areas of Teruel, in a scenario of very extensive snowfall that inevitably reminds us of Filomena. A new Philomena? It’s an almost obligatory question. with the arrival of this storm, and although there are voices that affirm that we are going to face that, experts ask for caution to see how the predictions develop as the days go by. And the difference between a historic snowfall and an episode of cold rain depends on just a few kilometers in Francis’ trajectory. In this way, if the storm drops in latitude, cold air will dominate and snow could cover Madrid, the center of the peninsula or Granada. But if the storm moves north, the warm mass would win the battles and the snow would be restricted to mountain areas and medium elevations. Everything will depend on how the prediction develops in the coming days. The danger for horseback riding. With this forecast that we have on the table right now, the truth is that the cavalcades may have problems making their usual routes. Although it must be taken into account that these forecasts may change, not being truly 100% reliable until a few days before these dates arrive. After Three Kings Day. Once these dates pass, temperatures will begin to increase substantially. This way, starting January 6th Precipitation is expected to begin to lose intensity and extent in the southern areas, although it could still be locally strong in the Strait, while snowfall remains in the more mountainous areas. Images | AEMET In Xataka | La Niña is going to be meteorologically “less intense” than we expected. And that actually hides a problem.