sustain

AI needs 650 billion a year to sustain itself. The problem is who will put them on the table

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Those responsible for the JPMorgan banking entity they have done numbers. For AI companies to achieve a 10% return on their capital expenditure In 2030, they will need to collectively earn $650 billion. That’s like saying that the 1.4 billion iPhone users will pay $400 a year to use those models. It’s not impossible, but certainly it doesn’t seem simple. Many use it, few pay. Above all, because today the number of paying users is very small. According to the data from the consulting firm Menlo Venturestoday 1.8 billion people use AI around the world, but only 3% of them (54 million) are paying customers of some subscription. ChatGPT as an example. OpenAI esteem that in 2030 that percentage will rise to 8.5% for its user base, which they project will be 2.6 billion a week. That is to say: 220 million people will be subscribed to one of ChatGPT’s payment plans, which will probably have different prices than the current ones in 2030. They do not seem sufficient, at least a priori, to make the firm profitable as promised. Advertisements. It is more than likely that the advertisements they end up being the other great resource to earn revenue from AI models. Although Sam Altman indicated in the past that advertising would be “the last resort” to monetize, recent data reveal that those ads are about to be part of the user experience on ChatGPT. A very risky bet. JPMorgan’s estimate points to a future in which billions of people will pay a lot of money a year to use the best AI. Apple account with 1 billion subscribers to its services, Netflix with 300Spotify with about 280and Google account with 150 million subscribers on Google One alone. It is evident that there are many users willing to pay for services that are useful and entertaining. The question is whether AI will be for so many people. And AI companies, of course, are confident that they do. The non-surprise of the bubble. In The Economist indicate that a potential explosion of the AI bubble already it’s not going to surprise anyone. The curious thing is that there is no excessively notable concern for the consequences. In recent years the economy seems to have recovered surprisingly well from disasters such as the European energy crisis after the start of the Ukrainian War or the tariffs imposed by the US. Recessions, this economic newspaper points out, they are becoming rarer. Everyone has jumped on the bandwagon. Mass vulnerability exists, however. Stocks today represent 21% of Americans’ economic wealth —more than in the dotcom bubble—, and investment in AI companies is responsible for half of the increase in that wealth over the past year. And therein lies the danger. Recession in sight? People have earned more money and saved less: if the bubble bursts in a similar way to what it did with dotcoms, The Economist believes that net worth will fall by 8%. That in turn would cause a notable decrease in consumer spending. It is estimated that the US GDP would decline by 1.6%, enough to push the country into recession. The difference with dotcoms. In this case that global recession It might not be so deep for a clear reason: the root would be in the investment markets, and therefore it could be overcome with a little more room for maneuver. Central banks could cut interest rates to boost consumption, a good thing on that front but dangerous for vulnerable economies. The shock wave of the explosion. If the bubble bursts, what could also occur is a painful reconfiguration of global trade. Lower US demand would reduce its trade deficit, but would worsen the excess China production capacity. By not being able to sell (as much) to the US, it would flood other markets with its products, which would probably cause some protectionism in Europe and Asia. The world is preparing for the stock market crash, but not so much for the economic and geopolitical consequences that will follow. In Xataka | OpenAI has no problem inflating the AI ​​bubble – it has a problem with it bursting too soon

China goes for those who mock their export controls. The focus is in strategic minerals that sustain their power

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Beijing has just tightened your control over one of its most valuable assets: strategic minerals that feed chips, electrical networks and satellites. A spokesman for the Ministry of Commerce He assured that smuggling will be pursued without concessions. The Asian giant redoubles the pressure. China does not stay in the ads of a firm policy: it has launched an operation that, as they say, already yields concrete results. During the last two months, multiple cases of illegal exports have been investigated, with arrests of involved and a “strong deterrence”, CGTN points out. A key meeting of July 19 at Nanning – with the presence of the Ministry of Commerce, Public Security, Customs, Attorney General’s Office and other agencies – served as an intermediate point after the operation initiated in May. In that meeting it was agreed: Establish a Joint Coordination Center for Export Application and Control of Double Use Articles. Publish exemplary judicial cases and expand the list of foreign entities subject to controls. Issue compliance guides for exporters, with emphasis on avoiding deviations to military purposes. Why these minerals matter so much. Strategic minerals –including rare earths such as neodymium, prseodimio and disposium– They are essential for high -tech industries: computer chips, electric vehicle batteries, wind turbines, satellites and military equipment. China controls about 60% of refined world productionwhich gives you a critical position in the global supply chains. Having this domain allows Beijing to influence key markets and exert economic pressure on international tension contexts. In addition, the refining of these matters requires advanced technology and complex chemical processes, which raises entry barriers to other countries. The threat: smuggling and technological leaks. Beijing’s message is not limited to economic damage. The Ministry of Commerce warned about an added risk: mineral smuggling can facilitate technological filtration towards foreign actors, including those linked to the military. It is feared that certain materials end up in defense applications without going through adequate controls, thus avoiding the official export mechanisms. The authorities claim to have detected sophisticated attempts to overcome the rules: false documentation, transfers through third countries, and fragmentation of cargoes to reduce customs scrutiny. The technical complexity of these schemes forces constant surveillance, according to He Yadong himself. It is not the first time that this is tried to stop. Frenting the smuggling of strategic products is not new, and it is rarely simple. The restrictions imposed by the United States on advanced chips and NVIDIA GPUS offer a clear example: despite the formal prohibition of exporting models such as A100 or H100 to China, China, Recent analysis indicate that these components continue to reach the country through opaque networks and triangulations with third countries. A movement with geopolitical echoes. The decision to harden control over strategic minerals cannot be understood outside the pulse between powers. While the United States multiplies controls on chips, AI and sensitive exports, China counterattacks in one of the few lands where it has a margin of real maneuver: that of critical raw materials. The country is responsible for more than 85% of the global refining of rare earthsand has begun to use that position as a pressure tool. He already demonstrated it in 2023 with the imposition of licenses To export Galio and Germaniotwo essential minerals for advanced electronics and defense. This new turn hardens its position and is interpreted as a response to the western fence. It is not a total closure, but a reminder that who controls the materials, controls a part of the game. Will these measures work? What is not clear is whether these measures will be effective in the long term. Smuggling networks usually adapt rapidly, especially when there are global interests at stake and high economic benefits. Nor do we know if these decisions will affect prices, the international supply or the negotiating position of China in future technological disputes. Images | Alejandro Luengo | Craig Thomas In Xataka | In full battle of all countries to get rare earths, an unexpected actor has raised his voice: Apple

If the question is “can a country sustain itself with renewable energy alone”, the answer is right here: Portugal

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Two years ago, Portugal reached 75% renewable electricity thanks to the expansion of hydroelectric, wind and solar energy. However, this new year seems to be closer to that goal on an annual basis. In short. In a recent report from Ember, Portugal has achieved a milestone by becoming a pioneer in the global energy transition. Before closing this last year, because only 10% of its electricity consumption came from fossil fuels. This represents a record low, with electricity production from gas and other “dirty” sources falling to 5.1 TWh, the lowest figure since 1979. Additionally, locally generated renewables met 71% of the country’s energy needs, while an additional 20% came from mostly low-carbon imports from Spain. Reducing emissions. Spain’s neighbor has shown that it is possible to drastically reduce dependence on fossil fuels without compromising energy supply. This achievement has placed the Portuguese country as a pioneer, aligned with other leading countries like Denmark and Chileand projects a future where more than 90% of its energy will be renewable by 2030. In addition, the definitive closure of its last coal plant in 2021 underlines its commitment to this agenda. Regarding the consumption of gas to generate electricity, it has decreased by almost half from one year to the next, demonstrating the change in the Portuguese energy system. Ultimately, total gas consumption has fallen by 17%, marking its lowest level since 2003. In data. The International Energy Agency has shown that Portugal has achieved this boom in renewables, thanks to public policies, strategic investments and a focus on the development of clean infrastructure. In 2024, Portugal’s electricity mix was made up of 28% hydroelectric, closely followed by 27% wind energy, 10% solar, 6% biomass and 20% imports from Spain, which complement each other. . Imports from Spain. A part of the electricity consumption in Portugal comes from the Spanish electricity networks. This exchange has reinforced the collaboration between both countries in the Iberian Peninsula, where the energy of both nations totals 82% coming from clean sources. By sharing a well-interconnected electricity grid and prioritizing decarbonization, our neighboring country benefits from a mostly low-carbon import, which reinforces its commitment to a sustainable energy matrix. This cooperation model demonstrates how regional alliances can accelerate the energy transition and guarantee supply stability in a context of high renewable penetration. Image | Pexels Xataka | The overtake of renewables is a reality: solar and wind energy are elbowing their way into Europe

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