Kharg

With the US and Israel attacking thousands of targets Iranians, including shipsdefense systems and oil facilities and supply, Kharg island It is a paradox in itself. Most analysts agree that it is the great Achilles heel of the Islamic Republic, a point at which Washington could cause considerable damage to the ayatollah regime. However, despite this strategic value and the intense US and Israeli offensive, after more than a week There is no record of Kharg being damaged during the war. The question is obvious: Why? On a distant island… Iran may be in a privileged position to control the Strait of Hormuzplace of passage almost 20% of the planet’s crude oil and gas; But on a geographic level, Tehran also has some disadvantages. The main one, its coast. It is not the best for maritime traffic. It is too silty and lacks the draft necessary for docking oil tankers. More than six decades ago, this handicap led Iran, with the help of the American company Amoco, to create a huge oil terminal on the neighboring island of Kharg. Although it is a tiny island, just over 20 km2its waters are deep enough to accommodate large ships. Since registering its first major shipment, in 1960Kharg has been gaining weight in the Iranian oil industry until it has become its nerve center. The island of black gold. The “nerve center” in this case is more than justified. Despite its small size, Kharg has been equipped with an enormous infrastructure, with loading docks, oil pipelines and warehouses, which allow it to channel about 90% of Iran’s oil exports. It is estimated that they pass through the island every day between 1.3 and 1.6 million of barrels of crude oil, although it has capacity for much more. JP Morgan estimates that in February, when war drums were already sounding, Tehran increased the flow to three million barrels a day. There are those who say that if he put his mind to it he could reach seven million. Added to them are its reserves, estimated at another 18 million. A perfect target. With such numbers, Kharg has become two things. A central piece in Iran’s oil network. And a perfect target for the US and Israel. A certain blow would come to cause considerable damage to the island and, consequently, to the finances of the Islamic Republic, contributing to its destabilization. Its strategic value is so clear that Israeli politician Yair Lapid recently insisted in the advantages that a direct offensive would have. To be more precise, Lapid has advocated for “destroying all of Iran’s oil fields and energy industry on Kharg Island.” “That is what would cripple the Iranian economy and topple the regime,” he reasoned. In the last days Tel Aviv has hit the country’s oil infrastructure, damaging deposits and crude transfer centers in Tehran and Alborz. However Kharg remains intact. And that on Saturday Axios wakefulness that Israel and the US have discussed the possibility of controlling the island as part of a greater deployment in Iran. Why don’t they attack her? That is the question that several analysts have asked themselves over the last few days, including Dan SabbaghDefense and Security editor of Guardian. The advantages of attacking Kharg are evident for the US and Israel (it would hit the heart of Iranian industry, destabilizing their regime), so… Why does the island seem immutable, at least today? To understand it you have to handle several keys. Some geopolitics. Other economic ones. About the latter was pronounced on Monday JP Morgan, which reminds that an offensive on Kharg would cause an earthquake in the oil market. Not only for hitting the Iranian industry. It could also trigger a violent response from Tehran that extends to the Strait of Hormuz and the oil infrastructure of other neighboring Gulf countries. It’s not crazy. Iran has already punished them. “A direct attack would instantly halt most of Iran’s crude oil exports, likely triggering severe retaliation in Hormuz or against regional energy infrastructure,” the bank warns. Beyond oil. “We could see the $120 per barrel price that we saw on Monday rise to $150 if Kharg were attacked,” warns Neil Quilliam, from the Chatham House think tank. “It is crucial for global energy markets.” It may sound exaggerated, but it is worth remembering several facts. Iran is not just any country. It occupies one of the top positions in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and pumps 4.5% of supply world. Much of its production goes to China, but if its supply were knocked out, the shock wave would spread to the entire market, influencing prices. Especially at a time of deep instability in Hormuz. We’re not just talking about oil. As remember In France24 Sonia Martínez-Girón, ITSS analyst, its market is closely connected to other very sensitive economic sectors, such as transport or food. And then… what? That is the other question that analysts ask. If Kharg is hit, the Iranian regime is hit, but… What comes next? What would be the next step? Richard Nephew, of the Center for Global Energy Policy at Columbia University, recognize that attacking the island would represent an escalation in the war, especially since it could require a ground deployment. “The US and Israel are aware that, if they attack it, they run the risk of Iran attacking the oil infrastructure of the Gulf countries,” warns. Not only that. Rebuilding Kharg would take time, so the coup would affect any hypothetical new Iranian regime, complicating the country’s stability. “Kharg Island is so important to the Iranian economy that destroying its facilities would mean abandoning any pretense of waging war to create a better future for Iran,” points out in Guardian Lynette Nusbacher, former British Army intelligence officer. Added to this handicap is the cost it could have within the US, where Trump’s interventionist is already causing a fracture of the MAGA movement in the middle of an election year. Images | POT, Natalya Letunova (Unsplash) and … Read more