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In 2025, Spain was left with the desire to reach the 100 million tourists foreigners. Now a cloud on the other side of the Atlantic threatens to move that milestone further away also in 2026. In a turbulent scenario, conditioned by the warthe brent barrel climbing and domestic politics, more and more Americans are rethinking their trips abroad. This is suggested by at least one report from the consulting firm Cirium, which has detected a “puncture” both in flight reservations between Europe and the US and (and here is the key) from the US to Europe. The data is relevant because the flow of Americans connects with other fronts that affect Spain, such as the demand of the tourism sector or the housing. A percentage: 11.2%. The data has advanced it USA Today. In a chronicle on tourism and international travel patterns, the newspaper slips a couple of data from the consulting firm Cirium that leave a clear reading: the demand for transatlantic flights is suffering. And quite obviously. According to their analysis, reservations from Europe to the United States have experienced a year-on-year decrease (July 2025-July 2026) of 15.34%. In the opposite direction, from the United States to Europe, a drop of 11.19% has also been recorded. Country of origin Tourists (2025) AVERAGE expenditure per tourist € (2025) United Kingdom 19,084,423 1,240 France 12,767,491 908 Germany 12,050,833 1,317 Italy 5,704,989 956 Netherlands 5,007,641 1,423 USA 4,456,665 2,297 Portugal 3,383,482 602 The alarms go off. The falls are striking, but they are even more shocking when compared to measurements that the consultancy managed at the beginning of the year. The outlook they drew at that time was also negative and predicted falls, but not so abrupt. Europe-US reserves pointed to a decline of 14.22% and US-Europe reserves of 7.27%. The reading is clear: travel forecasts have worsened, especially those of Americans. Why is it important? That the US has lost appeal among foreign tourists is no surprise. In 2025, after the return of Donald Trump to the White House and the trade and immigration war with which his mandate began, there began to be talk of a tourist boycott to the country of the stars and stripes. In 2026 the outlook is not simple either. The US has the powerful claim of the World Cup (it is the host along with Mexico and Canada), but the year has still started losing travelers and Oxford Economics estimates that, despite the ‘FIFA effect’, 2026 will close with a discreet growth tourism of 3.9%. What is striking about Cirium’s analysis is that the flow of tourists does not seem to be suffering only in the ‘USA direction’. Demand also pushes in the opposite direction, from Americans themselves, who are less interested in crossing the pond to visit Europe. USA Today cites two cases: reservations to Frankfurt have been reduced by 26.8% and those to London by 11.31%. Half surprise. The truth is that Cirium’s data only confirms the forecasts released several months ago by YouGov, which in December published a study in which he already warned that Americans would face their international vacations with some “caution” in 2026. The report left out some percentages for reflection. For example, 60% of those surveyed admitted that they never traveled abroad for pleasure, something that is largely explained by the cost of flying. Another interesting fact is that 43% admit to having traveled less abroad during the last year. But… And why is that? There is no single answer. When talking about the decline in demand in December, YouGov slid two factors why Americans pack less now. First, due to “economic uncertainty”, a reason cited by almost a third (28%) of those surveyed. Second, due to the increased cost of travel, something that 18% complained about. Since then the picture has become more complex. Added to the uncertainty are geopolitical tensions and the conflict in the Middle East, which, remember USA Todaybeyond the rise in oil prices, has “revived fears of terrorism.” The newspaper recalls that messages like the one left not long ago by Jeh Johnson, former Secretary of Homeland Security, about the security risks derived from the war in Iran weigh on US travelers. There would be another factor influencing Americans’ flight plans. The prolonged government shutdown from the end of 2025 has increased the burden on the Transportation Security Administration (TSA), which partly translates into long lines at the country’s airports. Now we add the changes to the airport map caused by the war in Iran, the foreseeable increase in the cost of transportation and flight cancellation due to increased costs. Does Spain care? Yes. The US is not only a world power. It also represents an important fishing ground for tourists and expats interested in spending time in our country. According to data from the INE, last year Spain received 96.8 million of foreign visitors. Of them some 4.4 million (almost 5%) came from the US, making it one of the main foreign markets. Its average expenditure per person is also high: 2,297 euros in 2025, above the average (1,392) and nations like Germany. Its weight is relevant if Spain wants to reach the goal of 100 million visitors. It is also felt in another market closely connected to tourism: housing. Both through vacation rentals and the expatswhich in recent years have set their sights on the European market due to their attractiveness. In fact there are experts who they already warn that there are areas like Mallorca that are arousing more and more appetite among Americans looking for luxury homes. Image | Martijn Vonk (Unsplash) In Xataka | China stripped Japan of its tourists in hopes of causing an economic hole. Nothing could be further from reality