asteroid

There is a 2% probability that the asteroid impact the earth, but we will not know how much it measures until the webb observes it

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He Asteroid 2024 YR4 He has aroused unusual interest since his discovery on December 27. Although the probability of impact with the earth remains very low, has risen from 1 to 2% As new observations are obtained. However, astronomers are having difficulty measuring their size and have decided to resort to the most powerful space telescope in history to get out of doubt. There is a problem in how an asteroid is measured. Until now, the size estimates of 2024 YR4 have oscillated between 40 and 90 meters in diameter, a too wide range to assess the danger that would represent an eventual impact with our planet. This lack of precision has a reason and is that The size of the asteroid is calculated from the reflected visible lighta method that depends on the reflectivity of its surface. 2024 YR4 could be an object of 40 meters very reflective or an object of 90 meters very dark. As well as any intermediate option. The James Webb space telescope to the rescue. Unlike other observatories, The 10,000 million dollar telescopeoperated by NASA, ESA and the Canadian space agency, does not observe the visible spectrum, but the infrared spectrum, and with an unprecedented sensitivity. Astronomers will allocate hours of webb use to analyze the infrared light emitted by the asteroid to obtain a more precise measurement of its size and temperature. With luck, it will allow them to discern whether 2024 YR4 is at the lower or upper end of the estimated range, crucial information to better evaluate the consequences of their unlikely but possible impact. Two rounds of observation are planned. Space agencies have foreseen Two rounds of crucial observations With the Webb Telescope. The first will take place in early March, when the asteroid is at its point of greatest brightness and visibility for the telescope. The second round, scheduled for May, will allow scientists to study how the object temperature varies as it moves away from the sun, in addition to continuing to obtain data on its trajectory when the object has ceased to be visible by terrestrial telescopes. Why fluctuate the probability of impact. The 2% estimate is the most up -to -date ES has provided so far (NASA publishes a 2.1% estimate). The figure varies constantly because the calculations have been incorporating new observations that reduce the uncertainty of their trajectory. These fluctuations are, in fact, typical behavior in the estimation of the impact risk of newly discovered objects. NASA planetary defense equipment and ESA are based on orbital dynamic systems (such as Scout, Sentry, Meerkat and Aegis) that generate multiple possible trajectories for the asteroid. As less likely orbits are discarded, targeting on Earth may increase the fraction of possible impacts, although, over time, additional observations allow the threat to definitively discard. If this were not the case with 2024 YR4, we would be talking about a meteorite that could fall in countries as populated as Colombia, Nigeria or India on January 22, 2032. Then we would start talking about a mission to divert it, a task in the that We already have some practice. Image | Two of the 18 mirrors of the Webb Telescope (NASA/C. GUNN) In Xataka | The impact probability of asteroid 2024 YR4 has risen to 1.6%. The UN has already activated a special protocol

The probability that the asteroid falls on Earth has risen to 2.3%. Even the Webb Telescope is monitoring it

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The last NASA calculations They place the probability that the asteroid 2024 YR4 impact with the land by 2.3%, a figure that the European Space Agency (ESA) has confirmed with Its own 2.27% estimate. For those who have lost their account, in just one week of observations We have gone from 1 between 83 possibilities that the asteroid crosses the planet Earth to 1 between 43. The options are still low, but they are high enough for the offices of NASA planetary defense and that They have intensified their monitoring efforts. To the James Webb space telescope, 10,000 million dollars, will be monitoring The little asteroid. 2024 YR4 is not much, but with A diameter of between 40 and 90 meterscould destroy an entire city if it survived the reentry and impact an urban area. When? On January 22, 2032. Where? At some point in the strip that extends from the East of the Pacific Ocean to northern South America, the Atlantic Ocean, Africa, the Arabian Sea and the south of Asia. It should be noted that These impact estimates They are calculated taking as reference the quotient between the diameter of the earth and the width of the area of ​​uncertainty of the asteroid, generated from simulations. The problem: 2024 YR4 is moving away from Earth In an elliptical trajectorywhich hinders its detection with conventional instruments. In a few weeks it will have become so faint that even professional four -meter telescopes have trouble capturing it. As of April, it will be necessary to resort to the Webb or the Vary Large Telescope of the Austral European Observatory to continue watching it until the object reappears In June 2028. The monitoring of the trajectory of an asteroid is a dynamic process that surely gives us a roller coaster of emotions. As more observations from the asteroid and its trajectory have, the probability of impact could increase again and then progressively reduce until reaching zeroconfirming the main hypothesis: that the asteroid will pass by instead of colliding with the earth. If not, the good news is that humanity has experience in asteroid diversion. In 2022, NASA’s dart mission He showed that it is possible to alter the trajectory of a spatial object through a kinetic impact. This historical achievement is the empirical test that we have the technology and knowledge necessary to at least try to protect our planet. Meanwhile, the UN has put on alert the Space Missions Advisory Group (SMPAG), which agreed to meet again at the end of April or early May to study possible mitigation measures in case the probability of impact is maintained or increased . Image | Daniel Bamberger In Xataka | The impact probability of asteroid 2024 YR4 has risen to 1.6%. The UN has already activated a special protocol

A study has simulated what would happen on Earth if Asteroid Bennu ends up impacting in 2182. The climate we know would not exist

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The chances of crashing an asteroid of “large” category on our planet They are, on average, 0.001%. Therefore, everything that begins to raise that figure begins to be “less” normal. Hence Let’s talk about 2024 YR4 and its 1.6%. That said, and although there are less possibilities that it will occur, due to its size, The Bennu Asteroid It would be one of the most dangerous of the solar system. How much? That is precisely what they wanted to find out in South Korea. Potentially dangerous. The Bennu Asteroid, an object close to the land of approximately 0.5 kilometers in diameter, has been identified as one of the greatest known space threats. His orbit brings him closer to our planet every six years, and although the risk of impact is extremely low (right now it is 0.037%), the possibility of colliding with the Earth on September 24, 2182 has led the scientific community to the scientific community analyze in depth its possible effects. An unprecedented recent study, Posted in Science Advances By researchers at the IBS Institute of Climate Physics of the National University of Pusan ​​in South Korea, it has modeled for the first time the climatic and ecological consequences of an impact of a medium -sized asteroid such as Bennu. The results, of course, are not the best. The legacy of an ancient asteroid. Scientists believe that Bennu detached himself from a larger asteroid, rich in carbon, between 700 million and two billion years ago, progressively approaching the Earth’s orbit. Its composition is of great scientific interest for a simple and fascinating reason: contains key elements for lifewhat motivated NASA’s Osiris-Rex mission to explore it in 2020 and bring samples to Earth in 2023. However, and beyond its scientific value, Bennu represents a real risk that, although unlikely, cannot be ignored. Impact simulation. As explained in the study, South Korean researchers designed Detailed models to analyze how that possible impact of Bennu would affect climate, biodiversity and food security. What did they find? The most extreme scenario revealed that the impact would inject into the atmosphere between 100 and 400 million tons of dust. In other words, more graphic: it would block sunlight and plunge the planet in abrupt cooling. As for the effects, the simulation showed a certainty: They would be global and devastating. Namely: reduction in the average planet temperature in up to 4 ° C, a decrease comparable to the eras glaciers, 15% drop in rainfall, affecting the water supply and agriculture, loss of 32% of the ozone layer , exposing life on Earth to dangerous levels of ultraviolet radiation, and the decrease in photosynthesis by 20-30%, both in terrestrial and sailor ecosystems, which would cause a serious crisis in food production. In short, these combined effects would trigger, according to the study, A winter of impact that would last between three and four yearscausing global famine and an ecological crisis of enormous proportions. Comparison with past events. While a Bennu impact would be devastating, the truth is that the earth has faced major threats. The best known event occurred 66 million years ago, When an asteroid of 10 kilometers in diameter hit what is now Chicxulub, Mexicocausing the extinction of dinosaurs and climatic alterations that endured thousands of years. In comparison, Bennu is significantly smaller, but large enough to cause mass destruction and deeply alter the biosphere. Not just that. Other studies suggest that medium -sized asteroids such as bennu collide with the earth approximately every 100,000 to 200,000 years, indicating that Our prehistoric ancestors could have experienced similar events with impact on human evolution and global biodiversity. Impact on the oceans. Despite the catastrophic effects, Bennu’s impact could generate an unexpected reaction on the oceans. The iron released in the stratosphere would be deposited in the sea, stimulating the proliferation of phytoplankton and zooplanktonessential organisms for the marine food chain. According to the study, while land ecosystems would take two to three years to recover, Marine life could recover in just six monthsand even exceed their levels prior to the impact due to the increase in nutrients. Planetary Defense Strategies. Despite the low impact risk, NASA and other space agencies work on the development of planetary defense technologies. For example, the Dart mission (Double Asteroid Redirection Test)carried out in 2022, he successfully demonstrated the human ability to divert the trajectory of an asteroid, opening the door to future mitigation strategies. And besides Bennu, there are other more immediate threats. For example and as we have explained these days, Asteroid 2024 YR4 has a 1.6% probability of impacting the Earth in 2032which reinforces the need to continue with research and develop effective prevention systems. What does seem clear to this last study is that not only reveals the vulnerability of our planet to cosmic events, but also highlights that need to advance surveillance and planetary defense technology. While the possibility that Bennu or any other asteroid impact the earth is minimal, geological history demonstrates that events of this type have shaped the evolution of life and could happen again in the future. Image | Ghost presentNASA In Xataka | All DNA bases and 14 of 20 amino acids: NASA has found molecules linked to life in Bennu samples In Xataka | Physicists have been looking for a fundamental “fifth strength.” Bennu may have approached us to find her

The impact probability of asteroid 2024 YR4 has risen to 1.6%. The UN has already activated a special protocol

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In just a few days of observations, the probability that The 2024 YR4 asteroid Impact with the Earth has risen from 1.2 to 1.6%. Once otherwise, there is a 98.4% chance that the newly discovered object passes by long. But the risk of not doing so is high enough for the UN to activate, for the first time, its planetary security protocol. Revised calculations. 2024 YR4 was discovered on December 27 by the latest land impact alert system (Atlas) from Chile, but did not caught the attention of astronomers until it automatically appeared on the NASA Sentry list on December 31 by its impact risk (then just above 1%) with the planet Earth. According to the Updated data which published yesterday the Coordination Center of Objects close to Earth (NEOCC) of the European Space Agency (ESA), the 2024 YR4 asteroid measures between 40 and 90 meters in diameter and has a 1.6% chance of impacting with the Earth on December 22, 2032. He would do it near Ecuador, at some point that goes from northern South America to northern India, passing through central Africa. Meetings in NASA and ESA. We can agree that the probability of impact is still very small, but has put in suspense the Space Missions Planning Advisory Group (SMPAG) of the UN, the committee that coordinates the response to asteroids of more than 50 meters with an impact probability of more than 1% in the next 50 years. With the planetary security protocol officially activated2024 YR4 has triggered, for the moment, two SMPAG meetings. One with the NASA Planetary Defense Coordination Officeand another in Vienna with the experts of the ESE Planetary Defense Office. What the experts have decided. Actively observe the asteroid and meet again at the end of April or early May (or before, if the risk of impact increases significantly) to reassess the situation. The probabilities can change in favor or against time as astronomers make more observations and refine the calculations of the asteroid trajectory. If the asteroid remains greater than 50 meters and the probability of impact is maintained above 1% for the next meeting, the SMPAG will issue a recommendation on future actions to the United Nations External Space Affairs Office (oneo). We will definitely need offices with acronym that is easier to remember if Armageddon comes true. We have some practice. Let’s not forget that humanity has already successfully diverted an asteroid. NASA did as proof of concept in September 2022 with the Dart mission, a ship that Dimorphos’ trajectory slightly divertedthe small moon of the asteroid Didymos. The European Mission Hera He now goes there to study the impact result. Everything we can learn from this test (And the one that China will do in a few months) It could make a difference in future planetary defense missions, the case may be. Images | Astrophyscia Institute of the Canary Islands, NASA/JPL In Xataka | Dart has been a success. The question is whether it will really save us when an asteroid goes to Earth

NASA ends up announcing that this large asteroid has a 1% chance of impacting with the earth. That is not normal

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At the end of March last year, NASA launched a very special statement. The agency came to say that the biggest object that will happen near the earth will be An asteroid that will approximate 32,000 kilometers And it can be seen with the naked eye on April 13, 2029. A few hours ago, NASA has given another “those” news. They have found a meteorite distinct To all we know. YR4: Impact risk. As we said, NASA has issued a statement About an asteroid called as 2024 YR4 Discovered at the end of December 2024 by the Atlas system in Chile. This object has drawn attention because it presents a probability of impact superior to all recent meteorites: 1% for December 22, 2032which makes it one of the asteroids with the greatest potential risk of collision registered to date. With everything and as we usually say in these cases, this estimate will possibly change as new observations are made, with expectations that the probability of impact decreases. Classification and risk. The asteroid has an estimated size of between 40 and 91 meters in diameter, similar to that of the object that caused the Tunguska event in 1908. Therefore, currently It is classified at level 3 of the Torino scaleindicating a real probability of impact that merits monitoring, although, again, its level is expected to be reduced as more data will be obtained. This scale, used to evaluate the risk of asteroid impact, goes from 0 (without danger) to 10 (catastrophic collision). In any case and for us to get an idea, before this finding there was no recorded asteroid with a score greater than 0 on the Torino scale. Closeness and probabilities of impact. The closest step of 2024 YR4 is estimated at 0.00001 Astronomical Units (AU) of the Earth, which is equivalent to 1,500 kilometers away, that is, closer than many satellites in terrestrial orbit. At the moment, The impact probability is 1 in 83 (Approximately 1.2%), which has generated that concern in the scientific community. However, and although we look repetitive, it is important to underline that the experience with similar asteroids indicates that these probabilities usually decrease after more analysis. Precedents There have been cases of asteroids that have reached higher levels on the Torino scale and were subsequently discarded as threats. An example is 99942 apophis, which in 2004 reached level 4 due to a probability of 1.6% impact in 2029, Although subsequent studies eliminated any risk In 2029, 2036 and 2068. Therefore, it is feasible to think that asteroid 2024 YR4 in the future is reclassified at level 0 As their orbital calculations are related. Possible consequences and monitoring. To put ourselves in the worst of the stage, with a possible impact, 2024 YR4 would not represent a global extinction event, but could cause significant damage if impacting a populated area, similar to the famous Tunguska event that swept a vast region in Siberia. Therefore, NASA and other space agencies will continue to track their trajectory and refine the calculations to confirm their destination. Although The American agency has emphasized its statement that the probability of impact is still low (about 1%) and that this type of initial evaluations tend to be corrected over time, also ends up underlining that it will adjust its predictions ensuring that any potential risk is properly evaluated and, if necessary, addressed With planetary defense strategies. Image | POT In Xataka | The biggest object that will happen near Earth is an asteroid that will approximate 32,000 km and can be seen with the naked eye In Xataka | The last asteroid located by NASA, giving up “close” of the Earth: a mole of the size of the giza pyramid

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