Long-term forecasts return rain to Spain

Although we have had storms and surprises in the last couple of weeks, the truth is that we have enjoyed a certain meteorological stability that has given a break to the very saturated soils, rivers and swamps of the peninsular geography. The reason is simple (the NAO positive), the bad news is also simple: there is a turnaround brewing in Scandinavia.

And, as a side effect, our chances of receiving a train of storms from the west again have risen significantly.

But, first of all, let’s explain what the NAO is. The ‘NAO’ is the ‘North Atlantic Oscillation‘: I usually describe it as the ‘dance’ between the Azores high and the Icelandic low. That is, between the two major atmospheric phenomena that govern the meteorology of the North Atlantic.

When the index we use to “measure who is winning” is negative, the Azores anticyclone is weaker than normal and, therefore, is unable to block the deep storms that hover over the Atlantic. The direct consequence is that they circulate further south than normal: right at our latitude.

What happened at the end of February and what will happen at the start of March is the opposite: positive NAO. That is, the Azores anticyclone is strong and that sends the jet further north. Something that gives us stability, fewer fronts and (usually, although not necessarily) colder.

But there are signs that this is beginning to change. It is important to remember that we are talking about long-term predictions and there are still many days ahead, but the pattern seems to be gaining consistency: during the first half of March, an anticyclonic block will develop over the skies of the Scandinavian peninsula. That, presumably, can undulate the jet and encourage more rain in the Mediterranean. That is, at least, Sergio Escama’s prediction.

And the truth is that it is compatible with the weekly prediction that AEMET published a few days ago.

Why is it important? Above all, for two reasons: the first is that the scenarios that are compatible with these schemes can give rise to a lot of rain on the Mediterranean façade. That is, because torrential rains are on the table.

And the second issue is that we must not forget that Spain it is up to the top of water. “More rain” will be synonymous with “management problems” for weeks.

So here we are, looking obsessively at the Nordic countries to see what the Atlantic will send us.

Image | ECMWF

In Xataka | Andalusia anticipates the storm and has already canceled in-person classes and activated the UME. The doubt is placed on the workers