If the question is when the next blackout will occur, the answer is simple: it is impossible to know

He Bru what last April 28 It has generated many questions, and among them a couple stand out that seem inevitable: the first, if there are possibilities that it will produce again Another massive blackout. The second, if any, when will it happen? It is impossible to answer these questions with total certainty, although there are ways to reduce those possibilities to the minimum possible.

Impossible to respond to that. To Niehls Bohr, the father of quantum physics, the phrase “making predictions is very difficult, especially when it comes to the future” is attributed. That also happens when trying to predict A nearby potentialsomething practically impossible and what also contribute several arguments.

We still do not know the origin of the blackout. One of the problems of trying to answer that question is that we have no definitive or officers about what caused the blackout. From the Spanish Electric Electricity (REE) it was stated that the blackout It was due to a generation disconnectionbut they still do not give details about the specific causes that caused such disconnection. The experts They point to renewables As a possible cause, but at the moment nothing is confirmed. And without knowing the origin of the problem, we cannot know how to avoid it in the future.

An unfortunate prediction. Pedro Sánchez, a jacket but without a tie, appears at a press conference. At a given time he says that “there will be no electricity blackouts.” The videowhich has now gone viral, it is not these days, but of September 6, 2022. At that time those words were pronounced in the context of a possible Russian gas cut throughout Europe.

But there has been, and the question is whether there will be. The president of the Government was wrong in his prediction. Two and a half years later Spain has suffered The biggest blackout in its historyand one of the great questions that citizens have been asked is when the next blackout will occur, If it occurs.

Never say ever. The research of the causes will lead to means for something like that not to happen again. The President of the Government spoke In your appearance of April 29 that there would be reforms so that “never” a generalized electric blackout is repeated like that of April 28, but even with all these reforms and measures zero probability does not exist.

There are impodeables. Even in the case of detecting and correcting the problem caused by the blackout, it is still impossible to ensure that another will occur in the future. There are of course possibilities that a technical, human error or a natural catastrophe poses blackouts at some point.

Spain has improvement margin. As we have commented In Xatakathe Spanish energy mix needs a stabilization system of the robust network, but also the Iberian Peninsula is an “Energy Island With very little international connection. Thus, we need an integration stronger With the rest of Europe to balance demand, strengthen system safety and share surpluses. There are other possible measures that can be taken, and as explained by the analyst Javier Blas In Bloomberg“The design of the network, policies and risk analysis are not yet up to the management of excess renewables.” All this is important when minimizing the risks of another future blackout.

Image | Gabriel Castles

In Xataka | The blackout left all Spain without capacity to communicate. The problem is that it also isolated the government