In full obsession with rare earths, a fairly common metal has jeopardized the green transition: Copper foul

The latest report by the International Energy Agency (IEA) on minerals has confirmed which He had been discussed for a long time: Today, the absolute leader is China. It is no novelty, but among all minerals there is one that runs a particular danger, and not precisely because of geopolitical control, but for the real risk of shortage.

There is a problem with copper. Of all minerals, copper emerges as one of the biggest challenges. The IEA report He has warned That by 2035 there could be a supply deficit of 30 %, due to the drop in the mineral law, the lack of new discoveries and the high development costs.

A set of problems. It can be explained in a very simple way In data:

• Only in 2024, copper demand grew 3%, mainly driven by investments in electrical networks in China.
• The growth of mining production has been modest, much lower than other minerals such as lithium or nickel.
• Further 70% of global capacity Copper processing is in the hands of China.
• 7% of global copper production is in regions vulnerable to floods and droughts.

Is there any solution? According to Fatih Birol, director of the IEA, the challenge is serious but not inevitable. In statements to The Guardianthe need to accelerate permits and reduce bureaucratic obstacles, in addition to implementing public policies that provide guarantees of volume and fiscal incentives, is stressed.

Another line of action that They have detailed It is international diversification and cooperation. Some countries have advanced technological abilities and refining experience; Others have abundant mineral resources and great geological potential. In this way, in the report They have underlined That establishing balanced alliances between both realities could unlock new productive capacities, reduce market concentration and strengthen the resilience of the entire supply chain.

There are other methods. A complementary route that already begins to take shape is the recycling of copper. As the pressure on primary resources increases, recovering and reusing infrastructure metal and disused devices is outlined as another strategy. In addition, in certain non -critical applications, the partial replacement of copper is studied by other materials, Like aluminum either The Ruthenium.

It’s not just about copper. The case of copper reflects a broader pattern: more than 50% of critical minerals are now subject to export restrictions. This includes from lithium to more unknown elements such as Gaul or Telurio. Chinese dominance in refining, higher than 70% in 19 of the 20 key mineralsmakes this country not only the largest producer, but the referee of the global energy future.

Time is exhausted. And copper too. The paradox is clear: the more we want to move towards a cleaner and more sustainable future, the more we depend on an infrastructure that we have not yet secured. Copper has become a silent bottleneck, difficult to replace and even more difficult to climb in record time.

Image | Joyce Cory and Pexels

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