Until now we have observed the electricity bill as has increased after the April blackout. But this time the focus is not on the receipt, but on a silent decision that the National Markets and Competition Commission (CNMC) has just made and that will determine how much it will cost to keep the light on in the next five years.
Piecemeal. The CNMC has sent to the Council of State the circulars that establish how the transport and distribution of electricity is remunerated between 2026 and 2031, the so-called “network business”: the towers, cables and transformation centers that make it possible for energy to reach homes, factories and hospitals.
The technical detail is a figure: 6.58%. This new percentage – up from 5.58% – is, according to the regulator, an update that better reflects current financial conditions, after a period of rising interest rates. However, the measure is far from the 7% or 7.5% requested by the large electricity companies grouped in Aelec (Iberdrola, Endesa, EDP and Naturgy) and that the small distributors represented by CIDE also claimed.
And in the pocket? Good question. These circulars, which will come into force on January 1, 2026 if the Council of State does not introduce changes, define the remuneration criteria for the entire period 2026–2031. In the short term, the increase will not be directly noticeable on the bill, but it will influence the regulated costs that support the electrical system and that we all pay. According to CNMC calculationsthe impact of the change will be between 0.9% and 1.1% of the total annual costs of the system, depending on the level of investment.
The purpose of this rate is to guarantee that companies that maintain and expand the electrical network receive a reasonable return on their invested capital. If the percentage is too low, investment is discouraged; If it is too high, the costs of the system and, in the long run, the consumer’s bill increase. The regulator look for a balance point: enough attractiveness for lines to continue being built and reinforced, but without transferring an extra cost to homes.
A change in calculation. For the first time, historical data and future forecasts will be combined to estimate the cost of companies’ debt, rather than relying solely on past interest rates. New components are also incorporated: transaction costs (such as commissions for issuing debt), the so-called cost-of-carry (cost of maintaining financial positions) and a correction due to the European Central Bank’s bond purchase programs, which had artificially reduced the profitability of public debt and, therefore, the risk-free rate.
According to the organizationthis is a “more realistic” methodology that incorporates recent market volatility. The change will be applied in a phased manner during the six years of the new regulatory period and expands the margin of recognized investment, including not only new infrastructure but also improvements and optimization of existing ones. The goal: keep bills contained while the network is modernized.
The “K parameter”. Beyond the technicalities, what is at stake is Spain’s ability to electrify its economy without skyrocketing the bill. The CNMC has set it at 257 euros per connected kilowatt, compared to 232 euros in the previous draft. The companies maintain that the real cost is around 375 euros/kW, so the improvement falls far short.
This parameter determines how many industrial projects, data centers or new homes can be connected to the network without the connection being economically unfeasible. According to the employerlimiting remuneration to that level “prevents connecting part of the new consumers” and can put the competitiveness of entire sectors at risk.
This has been the response. Aelec expressed its “deep concern” and warned that the new circulars “compromise the electrification and industrial development of the country.” The employers insist that the rate is still below European levels – between 6.8% and 7.5% – and warns that “it discourages investment just when the country needs to deploy more electrical infrastructure.”
More than 67 business and social associations have joined his call. In a manifesto cited by Aelec itselfwarn that, if conditions are not reviewed, “the Spanish electricity networks could collapse.” The employers’ association also criticizes that the CNMC has reduced the recognized maintenance costs by 37%, which, in its opinion, may deteriorate the quality of the service and stop the connection of new clients.
For its part, the CNMC maintains that its obligation is to protect the consumer and guarantee the sustainability of the system. The organization seeks to “limit the impact of investments on customer bills” and remembers that everything that electricity companies invest in these networks is paid as fixed charges on the electricity bill. The balance, the regulator insistsconsists of remunerating the necessary investments without overloading the end user.
A decision with long-term effects. Behind this technical dispute lies a fundamental question: can Spain electrify its economy at the necessary pace without increasing the remuneration of the networks? The Government has launched a plan to increase investment in networks by 62% until 2030, with around 13.6 billion euros to reinforce the national network, as El Economista recalled.
However, Five Days points out that the new limitations of the CNMC could stop part of these projects and leave out consumers with higher connection costs. The electricity companies are now preparing allegations before the Council of State, while the regulator defends that its proposal offers stability and predictability for six years, a rarity in a context of financial and energy volatility.
An invisible, but transcendental decision. The figure of 6.58% will not say much to the average consumer, but a good part of Spain’s electrical future depends on it. It defines whether there will be enough investment to connect the new factories, electric vehicle chargers or data centers that support digitalization, and also how much each family will pay to keep that network operational.
You won’t notice anything on your next bill, but this decision determines how much you’ll pay—and how reliable your grid will be—over the next five years. Between containing prices and guaranteeing investment, the CNMC and the electricity companies play a game that will define the country’s energy transition.
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