The history of Baikonur Area 31 It is also the story of the Russian space race: an infrastructure born in the 1960s, a direct heir to the Soviet era, which has supported the most reliable manned launches on the planet for decades. However, a simple mistake on a service platform has now put that legacy in check, leaving Russia on the brink of being temporarily outside the human orbit.
An oblivion like a mirror. The apparently routine launch of the Soyuz MS-28 was hiding a silent catastrophe: A service platform weighing more than twenty tons, essential for preparing the rocket at Baikonur’s historic Area 31, was not secured before takeoff. The result was devastating.
The colossal pressure of the engine the structure was torn off and threw it into the pit of flames, destroying it and severely damaging the only Russian complex still capable of launching manned missions and Progress freighters to the International Space Station. The later images showed a scenario typical of the Soviet era in decline, while Roscosmos I was trying to downplay to a ruling that calls into question something deeper than a procedural error: Russia’s real capacity to sustain its role in the last great space cooperation that still links it to the West.
Baikonur as a symbol. The incident breaks out at the worst moment for Moscow. After years of underfunding, talent drains and diversion of resources to the war in Ukraine, its civilian capabilities have been reduced at levels that contrast with official rhetoric. Until recently, Russia cut back on manned launches to save money, now it faces the possibility of not having any operational means for months or even years.
What was once a simple routine (tuning up a Soyuz rocket) has become a political test for the Kremlin: repairing Area 31 will require investments and prioritization, something difficult when all resources are absorb in front. The question, inside and outside Russia, is whether the government is willing to spend what is necessary to maintain its seat on the ISS or whether it prefers to let the infrastructure degrade while its narrative assures that “there will be spare parts” and that “everything is under control.”
Eñ Area 31
Inverted dependency. The historical irony is clear. In 2011, the United States was completely dependent on the Soyuz after retiring the space shuttle. Today, Russia is at the mercy of SpaceXthe only operational door to the station. And it’s not just about astronauts. The Progress freighters are critical to maintaining the laboratory’s orbit and to managing the Russian attitude control system, which desaturates the US gyroscopes.
Its possible absence would force us to improvise maneuvers with docked ships, consume more propellant or increase the pressure. about Dragon and Cygnusat a time when Boeing Starliner was still is not ready. Temporary loss of Russian launch site makes SpaceX the sole logistical support total of the station and leaves Russia without the minimum tool to claim a role equivalent to that of yesteryear.
The structural risk. The blow to Baikonur reveals another vulnerability: the lack of redundancy in global spatial architecture. Russia had already closed the iconic Site 1 to turn it into a museum, leaving Area 31 as the only option. Now that single point fails. Alternatives within Russia cannot be quickly configured to handle manned missions, and rebuild or adapt such infrastructure takes years.
The incident, far from being anecdotal, shows the accelerated decline of the Russian space ecosystem and questions its ability to fulfill international commitments as basic as keeping the only inhabited space station alive. The space community will have to watch whether Moscow prioritizes this repair or whether, as some analysts fear, the war will absorb even this last vestige of cooperation.
Uncertain future. The platform accident not only damages a pit of flames: erodes the Russia’s position on the ISS and forces NASA to plan for a scenario in which Russia is partially or completely excluded from manned launches for years. This would reinforce dependence on US systems and anticipate a possible political outcome: that Russian participation becomes merely nominal. until 2030.
At a time when the station is facing its final years, the breakdown represents an extremely fragile balance. A single mechanical failure, caused by human forgetfulness, could speed up separation of the space trajectories of Washington and Moscow and mark the beginning of the end of the last scientific enterprise that still unites the two powers.
Image | NASATV
GIPHY App Key not set. Please check settings