Meteorologists pay their attention again in the strip that runs through the center-east of the Pacific Ocean. The strip whose temperature warns us of the activity of the oscillation of the southern El Niño, Enso. And, according to these observers, the pendulum gets back.
The girl appears on the horizon. The latest data from the NOAA climate prediction (CPC) (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) United States They estimate 71% The probability that a girl’s event will arise throughout the last quarter of the year.
Taking this into account, the center places the Enso alert state in “Surveillance of the girls.” This state is declared when “when the conditions are favorable for the development of El Niño or the girl within the next six months”, and is the first of the alert states provided by the CPC, the other being the other the “warning of El Niño or La Niña” and the “final warning of El Niño or La Niña”, which indicate the beginning and end of an event.
A perhaps brief event. The forecasts indicate that we could be facing a relatively brief event of the girl. According to the CPC, the probabilities of the event in the quarter between December of this year and February 2026 are still favorable to the girl, In 54%. However, if the first quarter of 2026 is considered, the most likely conditions are neutrality: 54% probabilities compared to about 39% possibility of the girl.
The girl, the cold event. And what does all this imply? The girl is the phenomenon that is opposed to that of El Niño in the homonymous oscillation. If the boy arises associated with a heating of the Equatorial Strip of the West of the Pacific, the girl is associated with a cooling of this oceanic region.
At the meteorological level, Enso mainly affects the regions close to this strip, the Pacific coast of South America in particular. It is there where the consequences of this oscillation can cause widesarves.
In addition to a cold event, the girl is a dry event that can lead to droughts. This has an impact on agriculture in the region among other factors.
And what about Spain?Although to a lesser extent, the consequences of the alternation between the boy and the girl have global repercussions, and can affect the Spanish and European climate. In Spain the girl’s events tend to be noticed, bringing us a colder and dry climate. After a remarkably humid year, this could change the trend for the start of the hydroogical year.
A measurement problem.The Unso status update occurs shortly after another organism, the Australian Meteorological Office or Bom (Bureau of Meteorology), will announce the need to introduce changes in its way of monitoring this climatic oscillation.
Meteorologists use the temperature of the Pacific reference region as an indicator based on a threshold: if the temperature exceeds that fork, we are facing the child, if the temperature falls, the girl, and if it is maintained inside the parameter, the neutral state is considered.
The problem arises because the increase in the average temperature of the waters in the region, the variation occurs with respect to a higher average. The result: there is a risk of detecting more El Niño events than they really occur, as long as the girl’s events are stopped.
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Image | NASA, Jesse Allen
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