Accustomed to An overheated market in which demand far exceeds supply, Latest statistics real estate have left us a surprise. The Community of Madrid, the Balearic Islands, the Canary Islands or Cantabria said goodbye to the second quarter with less purchases of houses than last year. Not just that. The most curious (or not) is that this ‘puncture’ has not softened prices, which far from containing have continued upespecially in the capital.
There is who appreciates and signs that the increase in housing begins to stop the most tension markets.
What happened? That the Madrid real estate market is experiencing A curious phenomenon. Or not. While the country as a whole records more sale operations than a year ago, in the Community of Madrid the opposite occurs: less transactions are closed. It is not the only region of Spain that is unmarked from the general trend, but it is the one that does so in a more evident way.
In case that trend was not interesting, it coincides with another equally clear: the increase in housing. In the capital you may sell less houses than a year ago, but those that change hands do it with higher prices.
How much is the fall? There are different sources to answer that question. One of the most reliable is Official statistics of transactions that the government periodically publishes. His latest data is from the second quarter and reflect a clear setback in the Madrid market. From 23,267 operations in 2024 we have moved to 21,614, 7.1% less. The percentage is interesting for several reasons.
The main is that this negative data contrasts with the growth experienced in the country as a whole, where transactions grew 3.1% during the same period. The Community of Madrid is not the only one that is declined from generalized growth, although it is the one that has suffered a clearer fall. In the second quarter, they also ‘pricked’ other tension markets such as the Balearic Islands (-2.7%), Canary Islands (-6.1%), Cantabria (-2.7%) and La Rioja (-4.6%).
Is there more data? Yes. Those of the General Council of Notaries, which gives us Another perspectivemore updated. His latest report on the real estate market shows that in July the sale of homes grew in 11 autonomous communities, with increases especially pronounced in Navarra (21.5%), Aragon (14.1%) or Castilla y León (11.6%). In the opposite pole the Community of Madrid is located again, where the agency counted 8,235 purchases15.5% less.
‘Click’ again the Canary Islands (-11.7%) and Cantabria (-8.2%) and to a much lesser extent, with falls close to the percentage point, the Valencian Community, Catalonia and Andalusia. His setback explains that in the country as a whole, notaries have registered a 1% year -on -year fall in the sale flow. The Madrid market not only exceeds that setback. The country remember In addition, July is the fourth consecutive month in which it scores an interannual fall of transactions, although with more moderate declines.
What about prices? That is the key. The decrease in sale does not seem to have thrown down prices. On the contrary. They go up. And bluntly. If the Madrid market highlighted by the fall of transactions, it also does so by the increase.
According to Official data From the government, buy a residential square meter in the free market of the Community of Madrid cost in the second quarter of 2024 3,198 euros. In the same quarter of 2025 that value had already shot at 3,630, that is, 13.5% more. The percentage exceeds that of the national average, which stood at 10.4%, and left the value of the free residential square meter in 2,093.
What do notaries say? Something similar. Your July report It reflects that prices continued to grow in the most overheated markets, even in those in which transactions fell: in the Canary Islands they rose 5.3%, in Cantabria 14.6%, in the Valencian Community 7.7%and in Catalonia 7.5%. If there is a community that stands out, however, it is the Madrid, which combines two ‘silver medals’ at the same time: it is the second in which prices rose the most in July, 16%, only behind Navarra; And it is both the second with the most expensive M2. Its value is at 3,529, a fact that only exceeds the Balearic Islands, with 4,100.
Notaries have also detected an increase in the number of bank loans for the purchase of homes. In general, 6% grew with an average value of 179,450 euros, 9.4% more than a year ago. In general, more mortgages were granted in 13 autonomies, which is largely explained by its cheaperalthough its volume fell in Cantabria, the Canary Islands, Navarra and the Community of Madrid.
Why is it important? The phenomenon recorded in Madrid, Balearic Islands, the Canary Islands or Cantabria, where there were less sale in the second quarter while housing continued to make it more expensive, is interesting for what suggests us from the market: fatigue signs and less joy in purchases in a market suffocated by the increase.
José García Montalvo, Professor of Economics, I recently recognized to The country that a “slowdown” in the Madrid market is appreciated. “A growing pressure is being experienced that is now late for a little more to sell floors, that the number of days is lengthening,” he clarifies before adding that the last records show a 18% rise in sales times.
The notaries They point However, their July data should not be interpreted yet as “a change in trend.” In fact, they appreciate a growth trend, although “with a lower intensity in recent months than in the period covered by the last quarter of 2024 to the first of 2025, which points towards a certain cooling in the market.”
Are there more factors at stake? Yes. As García points out or notaries, the data invite you to think about a “slowdown” or “cooling” of the market that coincides with the price increase, but the increase in housing is not the only factor that comes into play. Another is the serious imbalance between supply and demand.
In the case of Madrid, for example, real estate promoters calculate that every year they are necessary 40,000 new homes In the community. Far, far away, from the pace of deliveries that the sector has been able to assume, which has remained between 7,200 of 2014 and the “peak” of 23,500 registered last year. Hence Garcia It does not foresee A prices softening. “That less operations are made may have to do with the fact that the offer is limited, so although the total number goes down, sales that are ending up can be due to stratospheric prices.”
Another key to consider when assessing the data of the second quarter is that this Holy Week (and therefore its holidays and unusual days for operations) fell in April while in 2024 it did it in March. However, the last quarterly statistics published by the Government is more or less in tune with the Julio de los Notarios report.
Images | Andrés García (UNSPLASH) and Notarial statistics
Via | The country
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