Madrid and Catalonia are losing national population while gaining foreign population

The latest data of the INE on population flows show a curious phenomenon (almost contradictory) in two of the most populated regions of the country: Community of Madrid and Catalonia. Although both maintain their capacity to attract emigrants from other countries, they have been losing already resident populations for some time. in favor of other autonomieswhich translates into an “internal” migratory balance in the red. In short: your migratory motor has two speeds.

The big question is to what extent it is the result of housing cost.

What has happened? that the latest data from the INE confirm that Madrid and Catalonia remain the favorite destinations for immigrants who decide to move to Spain, but at the same time both communities see how many of their own neighbors pack their bags to move to other regions neighbors, such as Castilla-La Mancha (case of Madrid) or the Valencian Community (case of Catalonia). The data is especially interesting if we take into account that they arrive with a residential market with skyrocketing prices.

Is the trend so clear? Yes. It comes with taking a look at the tables of INE immigration balances to verify it. If we look at the balance of foreign migration (the difference between the population from other countries that moved to Spain and the Spanish population that settled in other nations), in 2034 the Catalan community registered a clearly positive result: +129,030 people.

Things change when we talk about “internal migration”, which reflects population movements between the different Spanish communities, always within the country. In that case the balance left a negative result: -6,437. That is, there were 53,585 people from other regions who settled in Catalonia, but 60,022 Catalans who packed their bags to go to other autonomies.

And in Madrid? The ‘photo’ It’s not very different. Its external migration balance showed a positive result of 113,964 people, but that of “internal migration” left a negative balance, with the loss of 12,993 residents. In 2024 there were 100,342 people from other communities who registered in one of the municipalities of Madrid, but 113,335 did exactly the opposite: they decided to pack their bags and change the capital for other regions.

In fact, the Community of Madrid shows the worst internal migration balance (at least in net terms) in the country. Only Catalonia (-6,437) and Andalusia, which showed a negative balance of -5,858, come close (and by far). It’s not really a surprise. In May we told you how there are people from Madrid moving to Valladolid and taking the AVE every day to continue working in the capital.

Can it go further? Yes. The INE allows you to go beyond the autonomous communities and obtain data at the municipal or even submunicipal level, by neighborhood. It is an interesting tool because it confirms how this double phenomenon is exacerbated in the two main cities of the country: Madrid and Barcelona.

In the first (Madrid) the external migration balance was 73,959 people and the internal one was -18,722. In Barcelona these indicators marked +46,974 and -17,020, respectively. Valencia also presents a positive external balance and a negative internal balance, despite the fact that the community as a whole gained migration.

Why is it interesting? Because population flows are not isolated phenomena. They occur in a context marked by multiple factors, among which is (especially if we talk about recent years) the increase in price of housing and an increase in ‘overcrowded homes’those in which people reside in overcrowded conditions. There are also another clear trend: the increase in certain migratory flows, such as those of Venezuelan origin, a phenomenon that is being felt in neighborhoods of all types of income.

A recent study from Idealista confirms that Madrid and Barcelona are two of the most expensive cities in Spain. And he is not the only one. Photohouse calculate that Madrid and Catalonia are two of the regions with the most expensive second-hand housing in Spain, only surpassed by the Balearic Islands and (in the case of Catalonia) the Canary Islands and Euskadi.

Does housing have that much influence? The INE study suggests this, especially because it appreciates differences within the municipalities themselves. “In some of the main cities it is observed that the most central districts are losing population, while the most remote ones are gaining it,” comments the organizationwhich cites several specific cases already confirm the trend: “In 2024 in Madrid, the subdistricts on the southeastern periphery were the ones that had the highest balance. In Barcelona and Valencia, those in the south were the ones that gained the most.”

Of course more factors come into play. The Canary Islands or Balearic Islands, two regions very marked by rising housing prices and tourism, closed 2024 with a positive balance in both external and internal migration, just like the Basque Country. Castilla-La Mancha and Castilla y León also grew, receivers of a good part of the population that decided to leave the capital, and the Valencian Community, also a destination for internal migration from Barcelona.

Images | Joshua Aguilar (Unsplash) and INE

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