The alarms went off early on Monday, March 9. The barrel of Brent it shot up and touched the barrier of $120, figures that the market had not seen since the war broke out in Ukraine back in 2022. The fear of suffering the worst energy crisis in half a century has forced the G7 finance ministers to make urgent moves. Extraordinary meetings have already been called to try to stop the blow: The idea that is on the table is to suddenly release between 300 and 400 million barrels of its strategic reserves.
But the real problem is not just the price, but the logistical collapse. The blockage has made it disappear from the board about 20 million barrels per day. To put it in perspective, this physical “hole” is five times larger than the impact of the historic Arab embargo of 1973. In the midst of this Western panic, all eyes point to a vital actor that could act on its own to save the furniture: Japan, holder of the third largest strategic reserve in the world, sAccording to energy expert Javier Blas.
The Japanese dilemma. Japan is one of the most vulnerable economies to this blockade. According to oil pricethe country imports about 95% of its crude oil supply from the Middle East, and about 70% of those shipments transit through the now blocked Strait of Hormuz. Time is of the essence, since ships take between 20 and 25 days to get from there to Japanese ports.
At the official level, the message is one of caution. The Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI), Ryosei Akazawa, has stated that there are “no immediate plans” to release reserves with the sole purpose of lowering prices, remembering that these are used to ensure supply. However, behind the scenes, the machinery is already moving. Akira Nagatsuma, an opposition lawmaker, in statements for Reuters, revealed that the Agency for Natural Resources and Energy (ANRE) already instructed the Shibushi national storage base on Friday to prepare for a possible release of crude oil.
Stagflation and industrial paralysis. The consequences of this blockade are already palpable in the real economy. Bloomberg warns that an oil above $100, combined with a very weakened yen (around 160 per dollar), raises the risk that Japan will fall into stagflation.
On the streets, the blow is evident. According to NHK World, Gas stations are already raising prices, which suffocates land transport companies for which fuel represents 10% of their costs. The manufacturing sector is also bleeding: giants such as Idemitsu Kosan and Mitsubishi Chemical have had to suspend or reduce their production of ethylene, a crude oil derivative essential for the plastics industry.
Japan’s complex and hermetic armor. To understand why Japan is key, you have to look at how it stores its oil. While other countries have more transparent systems, the Japanese model It is a three-layer bunker: national storage (government), private sector storage (mandated by law) and joint reserves with producing countries.
The figures vary slightly depending on the source, but reveal a colossal volume. Javier Blas estimate the total at about 440 million barrels, enough for 204 days of imports. For its part, the METI and report of Argus Media They place reserves at around 449-470 million barrels, covering between 214 and 254 days of consumption.
The facilities are engineering feats. In addition to traditional above-ground tanks, the country uses underground rock caverns and, as highlighted Shirashima basegigantic floating tanks in the ocean, protected by double hulls and breakwaters.
But Japan’s real commercial “Trojan horse” is its international agreements. According to data from JOGMECthe Japanese government rents tanks in its own territory to state oil companies from Saudi Arabia (Aramco), the United Arab Emirates (ADNOC) and Kuwait (KPC). In normal times, these companies use Japan as a trading base for Asia. In case of emergency, Japan has the priority right to buy that crude oil.
The Asian contrast. Western suffering contrasts sharply with China’s situation. Beijing did its homework, the country has record commercial inventories of almost 988 million barrels, in addition to its strategic reserves, and keeps 166 million barrels floating safely off its coasts. Its massive transition towards electric vehicles and renewable energies acts as an impenetrable national shield in the face of this crisis.
In South Korea, the response has been blunt. According to the medium UDNSouth Korean President Lee Jae-myung has not waited to take internal measures, ordering the preparation of caps on fuel prices and demanding severe punishments against refineries and gas stations that hoard oil for speculation. The country is well equipped: its private companies have reserves for more than 220 days, and the State stores strategic crude oil for another 116 days.
A pulse between diplomacy and the physical world. The current scenario has made it clear that financial projections collide head-on with the harsh reality of immobilized ships. While Washington attempts to calm the markets by assuming that high prices are a minor cost for global security, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard warns that the barrel could rise to $200 if the offensive is not stopped.
In the midst of this escalation of threats, Asian operators are clinging to a purely tactical deterrent: they trust that the sea route will not be completely blocked for fear of angering military powers such as China, South Korea or Japan itself.
However, the paralysis of the oil tankers does not lead to commercial hopes and the diplomatic room for maneuver is quickly exhausted. If the G7 does not achieve convincing coordinated action in the coming hours, Japan could be forced to open the taps of its colossal and complex reserve alone. It will be the litmus test to discover whether its sophisticated three-layer bunker is enough to prevent Asia’s third-largest economy from drying up in the face of the biggest logistical collapse of the last half century.
Image | sanjo
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