Are our works by removing us? That is one of the great fears What we have about the impact of artificial intelligence In society. The question is important and inevitablebut today there is no way to answer it with certainty. And it is not because we are not trying to do it.
The AI (say) is priming with the newly graduates In early August a reported report In The Atlantic He warned of something worrying: the unemployment rate among the newly American graduates was growing. Among the possible causes, a slow recovery was cited from the pandemic, but also a more disturbing one: that AI is used to solve the tasks that those newly graduates made in their first jobs.
Wait, maybe AI is not replacing anyone. Shortly after, another study of the Economic Innovation Group titled with sarcasm “AI and works: the last word (until the next one arrives)” precisely raised the opposite situation. After analyzing several jobs theoretically exposed to the impact of AI, they detected that changes in unemployment rates were practically null or non -existent. According to those responsible, the AI is not at the moment taking our work, and if it is doing, the impact is for now very small.
A third study to liar more things. And of course the story did not end there, because a few days ago it appeared A new study led by the well -known academic and economist Erik Brynjolfsson. Here the research seemed to confirm the hypothesis of the first study cited: the AI is impacting on employment, but not on the world: only in that of the newly graduated from the university.
Young people have it more difficult, adults do not. According to their data, young people between 22 and 25 who start working as software developers or customer service agents They were having difficulty finding employment Because the IAS begin to occupy these positions instead. Thus, in the works most exposed to AI, these young people have seen 6% less employment, when other age ranges have increased the employment rate between 6 and 9%.
On the one hand, the Economic Innovation Group study pointed out that there is hardly any impact between unemployment rates in theoretically expued work to AI.
A difficult situation to explain. These three studies raise a confusing reality: is the work taking away, or not? Two of the studies do point to this focusing on young people who finish their university studies and look for a first job. Analyst Noah Smith contrasted That data and asked a question: how is it possible that companies are not hiring so many young people, but are increasingly hiring engineers of more than 40? There is a plausible, but not definitive explanation.
On the other, the Brynjolfsson et al. (2025) reveals that the exhibition does exist, but only for the newly graduated young people between 22 and 25 years.
The AI as a complement to who knows and as a substitute for the one who does not. These studies that point to a real impact on the use of the youngest could be explained with a theory: companies are seeing that AI can in effect resolve “basic” tasks that the newly graduated, previously resolved, So there is a substitution effect. But they are also verifying that AI can also help workers with experience improving their productivity, so there is an effect of complementarity, of “co -pilot” of the worker. If that is true – and for the moment it is difficult to know – we have an important problem.
Theories. Bharat Chandar, one of Brynjolfsson’s collaborators, explained In an independent article that “AI is exceptionally good in the type of knowledge that can be learned from books or that constitute the core of formal education.” But it also pointed to another possibility: that for companies it is easier to avoid hiring new employees than to let those already existing in an adjustment period that is affecting sectors such as software development.
And now how I win experience? These first works of the newly graduated have always been crucial to gain experience and train in the professional field, but if AI begins to impact these jobs, the danger is that the quota of experienced professionals with experience It looks reduced. Companies will enter A dangerous vicious circle: If they do not form new employees, they will not gain experience that then serves to make them more productive.
The possible transformation of the “first job”. This impact could break that cycle that we followed before to gain experience at work, but does not mean that there are no future options. In fact, you can make this experience gain accelerate. If companies hire newly graduated but they know how to take advantage of AI tools to learn and gain much faster capabilities, companies will have an opportunity on that scenario. Here correct and supervise the AI - for example, so that it is aligned with the objectives of the company – and provide a creative resolution of problems assisted by AI can also contribute many integers in these young profiles.
Image | Sigmund
In Xataka | There is a university career whose employability is approaching 100%. It is also one of the least studied
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