Zamora and Ourense were only richer than the poorest provinces in southern Spain for pensions. And they are already losing them

The pension system (and above all Your sustainability in the medium and long term) it may be a challenge for the State, but it is also a important economic engine. Retirees generate employment. And move wealth. Its weight is relevant especially in certain provinces of Spain emptied and depopulated in which those over 65 years of age come More than 30% of the entire population. The problem is that some points of the Spanish geography face A worrying threat: lose that last (and crucial) source of income.

The reason is very simple: they lose more pensioners than they win.

Spain, increasingly old. Spain ages. The average age of the population It has been increasing Throughout the last decades and if nothing changes it will continue to do so (at least) mid -21st centurya drift that arrives accompanied by a widening of the cusp of the population pyramid. And for sample A button: If in 1998 there were 8.63 million people over 60 years old in Spain, in 2022 there were already 12.57 million, 26.5% of the total census.

The great paradox. If there are more elderly, it is normal to think that there will be more retirees charging pensions. And it is so, although with certain nuances. As remember Javier Jorrín in The confidential The situation is not the same in all regions of Spain, just as it has not been its demographic drift over the last years. And that in practice can lead to a curious phenomenon: that in a country in full aging there are provinces that begin to lose pensioners.

What is the reason? A peculiar Sorpasso. In some provinces there are already more elderly that exceed the life expectancy (81.1 years for them, 86.3 for them) that workers about to retire, a mismatch that invites you to think that in not much time they will begin to lose pensioners. There are three province in fact that they already face that peculiar situation: Lugo, Ourense and Zamora. In all the population over 83, it exceeds the one that moves between 60 and 64.

Why does it matter? For several reasons. The number of pensioners in these provinces still grows and the Galician Statistics Institute esteem For example, at the end of the next decade, the population over 65 years in Lugo will have increased sensitively, but there are certain signs that suggest that this increase will end up reversing. In 2039 In the same Galician province there will be 26,800 people between 60 and 65 years against 40,108 over 80 years.

Something more than demography. That there are territories of empty Spain that face the perspective of winning less retirees than they lose is not a simple demographic curiosity. Pensions have become a key piece of the Spanish economy, especially of aging and depopulated regions. A study Recent of the University of Castilla-La Mancha concluded, based on data from 2021, that pensions paid to over 65 years Rondan 8% of GDP and his expense promotes the equivalent of 1.2 million of full -time jobs.

Household Pilar. A few years ago CCOO developed another report that also revealed its weight in Spanish homes. According to union calculations, one in five Spanish households (21.6%) already depend on an economic level, to a greater or lesser extent, on a retired pensioner. “There are four million homes whose person and reference is retired,” The study concluded.

The reason for that percentage? Both the increase in households formed by adults and “the precariousness of the working conditions of people of working age”, which explains that they rely on the resources provided by their retirees. With that data on the table there are Who already points that pensions have become the great source of solidarity towards unpopulated regions.

A country with nuances. To understand the figures you have to take into account several keys. And especially the context. The number of pensions in the whole of Spain It has been increasing progressively over the last years and everything indicates that this trend will not be reversed. In spring the airf estimates that the total expenditure on pensions will grow more than 4% annual until 2040 promoted in part by the revaluation based on the CPI, but also the increase of pensioners.

The really important thing is how that already withdrawn population is distributed and especially how it will do it as the Boomersa cohort that once starred in internal migration from Spain emptied to large population centers. In fact, while there are regions and provinces that lose inhabitants about to retire (60-64 years) in others their number grows at a good pace. A third key factor is the amount of the amount of the pensions themselves.

Images | VLADA SARGU (UNSPLASH) and Philippe Leone (UNSPLASH)

Via | The confidential

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