CRASH Clock is the proof

Low Earth orbit is increasingly close to becoming the new space M-30. Every year more satellites are launched and the risk of collisions that end in catastrophe grows exponentially. We can see it in a much more indicative way thanks to a new indicator called CRASH Clock (Collision and Significant Damage Watch). This indicator warns that only 2.8 days would separate the current moment from a serious collision if we were suddenly left without evasion maneuvering systems.

The abysmal difference compared to 2018. A team of researchers led by Professor Sam Lawler, from the University of Regina, Canada, has developed this indicator to measure the increasing risk of collision in low Earth orbit (LEO). The CRASH Clock is not a countdown to Kessler syndrome (that theoretical scenario where collisions generate exponential cascades of space debris), but it does reflect how congested orbital space is and how quickly everything could get worse in the event of any failure in the prevention systems.

The most worrying fact: in 2018, before the massive deployment of mega satellite constellations, that same clock showed 121 days. In just seven years we have gone from four months of margin to less than three days.

Why does it matter now?. The density of objects in LEO has skyrocketed with the arrival of megaconstellations. starlinkthe SpaceX satellite network, is the most visible example. According to a report filed with the United States Federal Communications Commission (FCC), its second-generation satellites perform an average of 44 evasion maneuvers per year. Researchers have calculated that this is equivalent to one maneuver every 1.8 minutes across the entire constellation. “There’s no magic here, you’re just avoiding collisions by moving a Starlink satellite every two minutes. This is bad,” counted Lawler in a Mastodon thread.

Graph showing the probabilities of a catastrophic collision if the avoidance maneuvering systems were to fail

In the densest area of ​​LEO, currently occupied by Starlink, approaches of less than a kilometer occur every 15 minutes. It may seem like a safe distance until you remember that these objects travel at seven kilometers per second.

We depend on technological perfection. The system works… for now. SpaceX applies an extraordinarily conservative maneuver threshold: its satellites take evasive action when the probability of collision exceeds 3 in 10 million, well below the industry standard of 1 in 10,000. But this efficiency comes at a price: an absolute dependence on automatic systems continuing to operate without failure.

The real danger is not in everyday life, but in unexpected events. A major solar storm, a widespread software glitch, or simply a miscalculation could trigger chain collisions. The study’s authors warn that we are currently “well within the Caution Zone,” with a greater than 10% chance of collisions occurring in any 24-hour period if avoidance maneuvers were to cease.

What the simulations reveal. The researchers used two methods to verify their calculations: analytical analyzes with data from public catalogs and simulations of bodies in orbit. In one of the simulations, by pure chance, the first collision occurred just three hours after the hypothetical cessation of the maneuvers.

Before megaconstellations, the densest part of the orbit experienced a closer approach of less than a kilometer a little more than once a day. Now it happens more than once every 15 minutes.

International coordination, key. Beyond Starlink, other megaconstellations are in the launch phase. OneWeb, Chinese projects, future Amazon deployments… they will all share the same orbital space. Therefore, communication between all agencies, governments and institutions is essential. But of course, “will China talk to Starlink?”, “will the secret satellites of the United States Government talk to OneWeb?” are questions that Lawler reveals.

Beyond collisions. The risks are not limited to collisions between objects. The study also points out problems already present: astronomy disruption observational, pollution in the atmosphereand increased risks of casualties on land. “From these safety and pollution metrics, it is clear that we have already put LEO under substantial stress, and changes to our approach are required immediately,” the paper’s authors conclude.

What’s coming now. The team has created a website where to periodically update the CRASH Clock and keep this alert visible. It is not about catastrophism, they clarify, but about ‘situational awareness’. “In the short term, a major collision would look more like the Exxon Valdez tanker disaster than an immediate end to Hollywood-style orbital operations. Satellite operations could continue, but with different operating parameters and a higher risk of collision damage,” counted Lawler.

Cover image | POT

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