The tensions between Venezuela and the United States have entered a acceleration phase which reminds, by its form and its atmosphere, of something very different from any other operation against drug trafficking and more so in the moments prior to a major crisis. Certainly not an ordinary diplomatic dispute.
An oil tanker and the arrival of a battalion predict a scenario of conflict.
Venezuela, the US and a shadow. The tanker seizure off the Venezuelan coast (justified from Washington as a legal act against sanctioned crude oil trafficking and denounced by Caracas as “international piracy”) has functioned as a starting shot for a spiral that had been brewing since months ago.
That said, the real turning point, the one that marks a qualitative leap in the US position, is the arrival in Puerto Rico of a contingent almost complete EA-18G Growlersairplanes electronic warfare without equivalents in the region and whose presence is rarely associated with simple training or routine deterrence missions. Venezuela, going through its own political earthquakes following the disputed 2024 election and domestic and international pressure against Maduro, now finds itself staring at a board on which American moves, for the first time since the 1962 crisis, suggest something more than a message: suggest preparation.
The Growler as an omen. They were counting this morning on TWZ that the EA-18G Growler deployed in the reactivated base of Roosevelt Roads, in Puerto Rico, are a first-order technical and doctrinal indicator. They are not planes of symbolic presence nor devices suitable for anti-drug patrols. Its mission is different: penetrate the enemy electromagnetic spectrum, suppress air defenses, blind radars, cut communications and open corridors for deeper operations.
In an environment like Venezuela, where Russian defense systems of different origin (including Buk-M2, Pechora-2M and S-300VM) make up a complex network, the presence of Growlers is the logical prelude to any action that seeks neutralize anti-aircraft capabilities and prepare the space for precision attacks, insertion of special forces or rescues in hostile territory.
And much more. The analysts also recalled that the mixture of ALQ-99 pods and the new NGJ-MBcapable of updating software and modulating AESA antennas to counter evolving threats, indicates that what is deployed in the Caribbean is not an improvised reinforcement, but rather a specialized cell in modern electronic warfare.
The region, accustomed to sporadic naval deployments or exercises, had not seen such an unequivocal sign of operational readiness since the most tense years of the Cold War.
The hit of the tanker. The boarding operation of the oil tanker Skipper (with Navy helicopters dropping equipment on its deck, official footage released almost in real time and Trump statements qualifying it as the largest seizure ever made) is not an isolated event. It is a global political message that combines judicial pressure with military demonstration.
Venezuela interprets it as a direct attack and a violation of its sovereignty, and Washington exposes it as part of a international sanctions network against Venezuelan and Iranian oil. In both cases, the effect is clear: the tacit containment threshold that existed until now has been broken. For Maduro, who urges the population to become “warriors”, the episode serves as a narrative tool to reinforce its internal legitimacy and denounce the American desire to appropriate the country’s resources. For the United States, the message is the opposite: the era of tolerance for sanctioned oil networks is over, and any maritime intermediation will be treated as a legitimate objective.
In other words, the clash is frontal, symbolic and strategic.
Aerial choreography. The recent flights of F/A-18 Super Hornets and EA-18G Growlers circling over the Gulf of Venezuela complete the new military landscape. They were not timid raids or simple patrols: they reached less than 20 nautical miles from the coast and acted with flight patterns designed to test, provoke and record reactions. The F/A-18 operated with the RHINO callsignwhile the Growler, under the name GRIZZLY2carried out loops aimed at capturing signals, searching for active radars and mapping possible defense nodes.
They told the BBC experts like Greg Bagwell, which is a classic intelligence operation prior to an intervention scenario or, at the very least, a warning that the United States can degrade Venezuelan defenses at will. Venezuela, aware that every electronic emission, every activated radar and every radio response can be recorded, analyzed and exploited, faces simultaneous psychological and technical pressure: any movement reveals useful information for an adversary that dominates the electromagnetic spectrum.
Massive deployment. Plus: presence in the Caribbean from USS Gerald R. Fordthe largest aircraft carrier in the world, along with B-52 and B-1 strategic bombers that they have skirted the coast Venezuela in recent months, composes a military device that cannot be interpreted as mere symbolic deterrence. As we countthe reactivation of Roosevelt Roads (closed since 2004) and its use for F-35 operations confirms that the American return to the Caribbean responds to a longer-term strategic design.
with some 15,000 troops deployedspecial forces in rotation, ships of various types and capacities and a constant flow of tactical aircraft, the US military structure in the region increasingly resembles a prepared platform for multiple options: from specific attacks to prolonged pressure operations, including the total interdiction of Venezuelan oil trade.
The political factor. There is no doubt, military tension is intertwined with a internal political crisis in Venezuela that has further eroded the legitimacy of the regime. While Maduro denounces attacks and invoke resistancethe awarding of the Nobel Peace Prize to María Corina Machado It symbolizes the international recognition of the Venezuelan opposition and its demand for democratic transition.
The United States, for its part, maintains a reward on Maduro 50 million dollarshas intensified accusations of links with the Cartel de los Soles and has multiplied lethal operations against vessels supposedly linked to drug trafficking. In this climate, any additional steps (such as a total oil blockadedescribed by analysts as an act of war) could precipitate an unexpected reconfiguration of the internal and regional balance.
A game where the United States affirms that Maduro has “his days numbered.” Venezuela promises to resist “like warriors.” And the Caribbean, full of electronic signals, naval convoys and shadows of planes on the sea, once again becomes the scene where a political dispute can transform into a strategic crisis. hemispheric scale.
Image | USAF/STAFF SGT. GERALD WILLIS, Air National Guard
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