Now that the most wanted cartel in Mexico has died, three disturbing possibilities open up. All with the US in the target

For more than four decades, the relationship between Mexico and the United States has been marked by a shared war and asymmetric against drug traffickinga fight that has oscillated between open confrontation, silent cooperation and the reproaches mutual while criminal networks adapted, fragmented and strengthened in the heat of the demand for drugs north of the border and violence to the south. In this permanent pulse, each hit against a boss has not only been an operational successbut also the beginning of a new disturbing phase.

The biggest blow in a decade. The death of Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, known as “El Mencho”undisputed leader of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel, represents the most important blow against organized crime in Mexico since fall of “El Chapo”.

It is, not only because of the dejected figure, but because structural weight of the organization he directed, which became one of the most expansive, violent and with the greatest international capacity in the country. We are talking about an organization with presence in dozens of nations and a central role in the trafficking of methamphetamine and fentanyl into the United States.

The definitive breakup. From the political side, the operation confirms the breakup with the stage of “hugs, not bullets” and consolidates a strategy based on intelligence, coordination and direct action against criminal leaders.

In fact, the administration of Claudia Sheinbaum has multiplied arrests, seizures and deployments on the northern border. The internal message is crystal clear: the State seeks regain the initiative in the face of organizations that took advantage of years of limited containment to expand and professionalize.

Immediate response that has paralyzed regions. There is no doubt, in an operation of this caliber, the reaction of the cartel has been lightning and coordinatedwith blockades, vehicle fires, attacks on infrastructure and suspension of activities in several states.

Cities like Guadalajara and Puerto Vallarta are experiencing panic scenes that are reminiscent of previous crises in Sinaloa after the capture of other leaders such as that of “El Mayo”. And, as almost always, the deployment of federal forces and the alerts to foreign citizens show a reality most uncomfortable: The group’s operational capacity does not disappear with the death of its leader.

The great unknown and a risk. This being the case, and with the natural heir imprisoned in the United States, the replacement of the next great drug trafficker open a fight potential between regional commanders and key operators.

They remembered in the New York Times that, if the chain of command is not imposed quickly, it is very possible that internal disputes will begin to arise that fragment or weaken the organization. The Mexican experience shows that these transitions usually translate in prolonged violence and territorial fights that affect entire communities.

The first possibility looking at Washington. With this scenario, what happens in the coming weeks can greatly alter the security architecture not only of the United States, but from all over North America opening before him three most disturbing scenarios.

First of all, a more than possible internal war due to the succession within the CJNG that destabilizes the organization and multiplies all types of sources of regional violence, generating in turn displacement, migratory pressure and greater disorderly flow of weapons and drugs towards the north of the continent.

And the remaining two. Secondly, the equally plausible possibility opens up: that of a rival cartels offensive to dispute territories and the most strategic routes, a situation that could trigger a prolonged national conflict similar to the one that occurred in Sinaloaaffecting logistics chains, investment and, in general, border stability.

Finally, the third way is that of rapid consolidation under a new leadershipone that, far from weakening the business, makes it more opaque and decentralized, maintaining or even sophisticating fentanyl trafficking to the United States and beyond, which would force Washington to rethink its cooperation, its political pressure and even the debate on direct interventions, with profound implications for Mexican sovereignty and regional integration. In short, with consequences for the entire North American security architecture.

A turning point in relationships. The last thing that we have known of the operation has been that it was carried out by Mexican forces together with US intelligence, all in a context political pressure from the White House and millionaire rewards offered by the DEA, along with the review of commercial and security commitments. Plus: arrives after months of extraditionsconvictions and mass arrests linked to the capo’s entourage, suggesting that the operation has been a sustained strategy and not an isolated hit.

Tactical success obviously reinforces cooperation, but it will also very likely raise expectations and scrutiny over actual results. If violence expands or the criminal business adapts and diversifies without losing any capacity, such as it has already happened In the past, the region could enter a highest voltage phase strategic that redefines the way in which both countries manage their border, their trade and their shared security.

Image | Knight Foundation

In Xataka | The cartels have a vehicle that looks like something out of Mad Max: it is called a “narcotanque” and it is a nightmare in Mexico

In Xataka | There is a “cocaine of the sea” that is breaking the Chinese market. And that is a huge problem for Mexico.