Battles are won long before the first missile is launched

In World War II, armies began to discover that intercepting a radio signal could be as decisive as sinking a ship. Decades later, that logic has multiplied: today a modern conflict can involve satellites, algorithms that process millions of data per second and attacks that occur on invisible networks long before the first plane or the first missile appears in the sky.

The war that happens before. In the past, wars began with the first visible shot: a cavalry charge, an artillery barrage, or a missile launch. But the conflicts of the 21st century have changed radically that logic.

Before the first projectile crosses the sky, it has already been released a decisive battle in another much less visible place: computer networks infiltrated for years, satellites observing movements, electronically blinded radars and algorithms that analyze mountains of data to anticipate each enemy movement. The war in Iran has proven it again crudely. Same as it happened in ukrainethe real showdown begins long before the audience sees the explosions.

A years-long murder. I was counting last week the financial times in an extensive report how the attack that ended the life of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was planned, one of the most extreme examples of this new way of fighting. When Israeli fighters dropped their bombs on the Pasteur Street complex in Tehran, the operation was actually years developing in silence. Israel had hacked a large part of the traffic cameras in the Iranian capital and transmitted their encrypted images to servers in its territory.

Those data are combined with algorithms able to reconstruct patterns of life: what time the bodyguards arrived, where they parked their cars, what routes they followed and which officials they worked with. This information was integrated with human intelligence, communications interceptions and social network analysis that identified centers of power within the Iranian system. The result was a production chain targeting: an intelligence machine designed to convert data into military targets.

Blind first, attack later. When it came time to execute the operation, the missiles and bombs were actually the last phase of the plan. Before the fighters went into action, the United States launched cyber attacks aimed at degrading Iranian communication and air defense systems.

The goal was simple: blind the enemy. Disabled radars, confused command networks, and cell towers unable to transmit warnings created a temporary vacuum in which attacking forces could move with advantage. That logic (take away first the eyes to the opponent) had already appeared in previous conflictsbut has now become a centerpiece of modern military strategy.

The invisible battlefield. This previous combat is fought in what the military calls the electromagnetic spectrum: the domain where radars, communications, satellites and navigation systems operate. Controlling that space means being able to detect threats before the enemyguide precision weapons or block signals that allow a defense to be coordinated. Losing it can have immediate consequences.

Without secure communications, units cannot coordinate, without satellite navigation, guided weapons lose precision, and without radar, anti-aircraft systems stop seeing the targets they must intercept. That is why military strategists repeat a warning increasingly clear: if the electromagnetic spectrum battle is lost, the war is probably already lost.

The lesson that came from Ukraine. How have we been countingthe war in Ukraine was the laboratory that demonstrated to what extent this invisible combat It is decisive. There, both Russia and Ukraine have employee war systems electronics to jam drones, jam GPS-guided missiles or disable enemy communications.

At times, Western precision weapons such as lHIMARS rockets or the JDAM pumps They lost some of their effectiveness due to Russian electronic interference. The result was a battlefield where spectrum control (and not just the number of missiles or tanks) determined who had the advantage.

The new phase of modern warfare. The operation against Iran confirms that this trend is not a Ukrainian anomaly, but rather the norm in contemporary wars. Today the first movements in a conflict are not usually visible, because they are hackers infiltrating networks, satellites detecting signals, algorithms processing data or electronic systems blocking communications.

If you like, it is also a silent phase, but absolutely critical. Only when that battle is won do missiles take off, planes cross the border or bombs fall on their targets. By then, however, much of the outcome has already been decided. Because in the wars of the 21st century, the most important combat is not fought in the air or on the ground, but in an invisible domain where seeing before the enemy is as decisive as shooting first.

Image | US Navy, nara

In Xataka | Iran’s drones have aimed at the same target as the US. And now that they have pulverized it, they are going to unleash their most dangerous weapon

In Xataka | Iranian oil made the Shah of Persia immensely rich. He also financed palaces, 140 luxury cars and a private Boeing 727.