He flu virus is reaching its peak with a higher infection rate after seeing practically vertical graphs in communities like Madrid or Catalonia. The positive point that we mentioned is that hospitalizations They weren’t increasing too much.but we can now put this idea aside because they have begun to grow. And that is a problem for the health system.
Number of infections. The report of Acute Respiratory Infection Surveillance System of the ISCIII published this Thursday points to an incidence of 446.6 cases per 100,000 inhabitants until last Sunday the 14th. An increase of almost 50% compared to the previous week, something that undoubtedly reminds us of the worst of the covid pandemic.
Hospital admissions. One of the most striking points, since it can be clearly seen in hospital emergencies with long waits and a high number of patients waiting for a bed. And it is that revenue has increased by 17% until reaching 9 incomes per 100,000 inhabitants. Something that already is evident in the emergency room with patients waiting for beds, long waiting lines due to the flood of patients and a health system that is already beginning to be strained.
Flu evolution in Spain by season. Source: ISCIII
If we focus on the ages of the patients, those over 80 years of age have a rate of 56.2 cases per 100,000 people. But in children under one year old this figure drops to 48.8 cases.
Unequal impact by communities. Although the trend is upward at the national level, the situation is not homogeneous. In the Community of Madrid, through the Notifiable Diseases system, 22,110 new flu cases during week 50.
This is a figure that is quite far from other communities such as Castilla y León, which in the report WATCH reports a global rate of 149 cases per 100,000 inhabitants in the case of influenza. Although in the case of acute respiratory infections in general this figure increases to 781 cases.
Virus variant. Part of the blame for this great spread of the virus (at least much more than we saw in other years) is due to the variant k of the H3N2 influenza virus for which we were not entirely prepared. This has meant that the vaccine does not work 100%, and even generate certain doubts about the effectiveness of the campaign.
What is clear is that it is mitigating part of its effects, minimizing its severity. This means that right now the recommendation to follow is to get vaccinated at the health center to have part of this protection.
The holidays begin. The peak of the flu seems to be approaching, but there is still a very important event: Christmas dinners. A moment where there is a large accumulation of people in the same closed area and which can lead to a considerable increase in infections after these important dates.
And the most relevant transmitter is undoubtedly the smallest in the house, who a priori may not show many symptoms or may even take much longer to show them. This makes it easy for them to spread it, especially for the older people in their environment who can develop a much more serious flu that may end up in a hospital. right now it’s starting to collapse.
The forecast. As we say, the great ‘boom’ of the contagion curve is expected for this Christmas due to this number of contacts. But from here everything will begin to go downwards with the aim of recovering normality already into 2026.
It must also be taken into account that this year the epidemic began earlier than expected, so it can also be seen that it will end earlier than what happened in other years.
Images | Victory Brittany Colette
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