From Europe its “welfare state” was envied. But it is increasingly difficult to pay, and France is the best example

Europa presumed for decades of having found the perfect formula to combine economic prosperity with social justice: hospitals open to all, affordable universities and worthy retirements after a work life. That pact between generations, envied on the other side of the Atlantic, became the identity mark of the continent. And yet They begin to become visible.

And one of its banners wobbles: France.

A price too high. I told this week The Washington Post. Europe lives a historical crossroads: the social model that guaranteed universal health, accessible education and decent retirements begins to show cracks that can no longer be hidden. France It is the epicenter of that tension. There, the runaled public debt, political paralysis and succession of Fallen prime ministers In just fifteen months they show deep wear.

The State Spend more than any other country rich in social protection, but that expense seems unsustainable in a context of low growth and growing polarization. The recent resignation From Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu, unable to agre as inalienable.

Model under generational pressure. There are more, since, in France, new generations feel that they inherit a system that they cannot sustain. He Post counted Cases of young people such as Anastasia Blay, who depend on intermittent subsidies to survive, convinced that they should not load with the mistakes of the past or give up a decent life.

In front of them, retirees like Christine Boucau-Podorski They defend The pensions achieved after decades of hard work and are willing to limited sacrifices, but not losing acquired rights. This struggle between young and old reflects the intergenerational shock that crosses To all of Europe: Who pays the invoice, what benefits should be preserved and to what extent intergenerational solidarity can continue to be the base of the European social contract.

Germany and France Wobm up. Fragility is not limited to France. Germany, the other great Historical support of the European Union, faces industrial recessiondeterioration of infrastructure and a government that admits since “the current system is unassumable.” Political tensions are intense, with the social democratic opposition refusing to accept drastic cuts and the extreme right by capitalizing citizen discomfort.

Meanwhile, the Ultras games grow On both sides of the rhine fed by social disenchantment and the feeling of stagnation. The paradox is that Italy or Spainonce considered weak links, they exhibit today greater stability macroeconomic than European locomotives. The center, formerly balancing, has become the area of ​​greatest uncertainty, which weakens the European project at a time of growing external threats.

The southern paradox. It is quite striking that countries historically seen as fragile, such as Spain and Italy, today appear (either They seem) as relatively more stable. Italy, after decades of political instability, lives its strongest period with a controversial government that has even achieved An improvement of the credit rating.

Spain, meanwhile, has reduced by half unemployment in the last decade and maintains growth above the European average, despite spend less on well -being than France or Germany. This roles investment shows to what extent the clichés of the southern Europe have been exceeded: the Mediterranean nations, previously accused of fiscal laxity, seem to have learned to navigate austerity, while “the rich north” It sinks in its own budgetary rigidity.

The perfect storm. The challenge is aggravated by external factors that multiply internal pressures. The Russian Invasion of Ukraine pushes to increase the defense expensejust when public coffers They are already exhausted. China Compete fiercely With European industry, from electric cars to nuclear energy, eroding the international position of German and French manufactures.

And the United States, far from offering security, Add uncertainty with a president who changes position in a matter of days and threatens tariffs to his own allies. Europe must decide If prioritize shield Your welfare state, to reorient resources towards military security or find a balance that does not sacrifice either global competitiveness or social cohesion.

The great unknown. Experts Like Andreas Eisl They argue that the dilemma is first of all politician: it is not if Europe can maintain its social model, but to what extent it wants to do it and what sacrifices is willing to assume. Attempts to apply cuts, such as 44,000 million euros proposed in the budget that demolished Prime Minister François Bayrou, have caused A massive rejection on the street and fed polarization.

However, mathematics is relentless: with a aging populationa Birth in Declive and one Increasing resistance To immigration, the fiscal base narrows while the needs increase. Europe may not be on the verge of a Greek collapse, or it does not seem, but the sustainability of its “way of life” indicates that it has ceased to be An unquestionable dogma. And that is, perhaps, the true battle of the future: if the old continent manages to reinvent his social contract without dynamiting him in the process.

Image | Pexels, Martin Greslou

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