In Spain there is no summer without forest fires. Nor in which you do not talk about the fearsome rule of 30-30-30

In Spain there is no summer without beaches. Nor without fire. Fire is hitting areas of Galicia, Castilla y León, Catalonia either Andalusia, sweeping hectaresforcing to evacuate hundreds of people and affecting even to icons like the place of Las Médulasin the Bierzo. With that backdrop, firefighters remain attentive to a key factor in forest fires.

Which? The ‘rule of 30-30-30’.

What is the ‘Rule of 30-30-30’? A formula that helps us understand when the elements play against firefighters and favor of forest fires. It is not new And it has above all a didactic dimension, but if something cannot be denied to the ‘Rule 30-30-30’ (o ‘rule of 30’) is that it is intuitive.

Basically, what identifies are those scenarios in which the temperature exceeds 30ºC, the wind gusts exceed 30 km/Hy the relative humidity is below 30%, conditions that facilitate the expansion of the flames.

Why is it interesting? Because as remember The University of Chile (Uchile) offers “an alert signal”, an indicator that recalls that there have been a cluster of “very favorable conditions” to spread the fire. “The origin of the term is not scientifically demonstrated, but approaches the conditions of extreme care that the manager should take knowledge to take measures,” Miguel Castillo explainsCenter researcher.

The ‘Rule of 30-30-30’ stands out for its practical nature, especially when planning fire prevention strategies and informing the population. “It’s useful”, summarize The academic. “For example, if the meteorology indicates that in 72 hours a burst of permanent and dry wind will arrive and the conditions will not fall from the 30ºC or 32ºC, the communities should establish certain mechanisms.”

Do more factors influence? Yes. Perhaps heat, intense winds and low humidity are “the ingredients of a perfect storm” for the spread of forest fires, but castle itself remember that there is another crucial factor: the human. Their own data The Ministry of Environment shows that a good part of the great fires that are declared in Spain cause them accidents, negligence or even intentionally. WWF in fact calculates that 95% of fires respond to human causes and 53% are deliberately caused.

Man also influences the state of the fields and mountains. “The strong depopulation and rural aging, the cessation of traditional agricultural activities, the absence of forest exploitation and serious policies that manage the territory has transformed the territory,” Remember wwf.

“This increase in forest surface does not translate into the increase in healthy, stable and diverse forests. The cultivated and grazing areas in the past are today covered by thickets, young pioneer or monoespecific rods that, without adequate management, are condemned to burn sooner or later. “

Is the ’30’ rule fulfilled? As Castillo recalls, the ‘Rule 30-30-30’ is useful when preventing disasters and alerting the population. Reality however is something more complex. A few years ago Civio analyzed The large forest fires registered between 2007 and 2016 and proved how many of them were adjusted to the ’30 rule’, that is, they had given the mercury above 30ºC, wind gusts of more than 30 km/hyo a humidity of less than 30%.

What did you find out? That were adjusted to those parameters 72 of a total of 196 fires, about 37%. The key is again the one that slides the Chilean expert: at stake more factors enter the strictly climatic. “In the devastating expansion of a great fire you have to take into account other variables such as the type of vegetation and topography,” Comment Miguel Ángel Soto, from Greenpeace.

Going down to detail. If we analyze the different factors of the ‘rule of 30’ separately, we verify, however, they do influence forest fires. Of the 196 registered fires between 2007 and 2016, in 153 the windfall exceeded 30 km/h. In 80 the temperatures reached or exceeded 30ºC.

“The great fires occur by a cocktail effect: the more elements introduce in the shaker, the more possibilities you have to face an ungovernable fire,” agrees Soto “If the ‘rule of 30’ is fulfilled we will be facing the worst possible scenario, but if there are two variables it is also serious.”

The last fires that have hit in recent days Galicia, Castilla y León, Andalusia either Cataloniasweeping thousands of hectares, have coincided with a heat wave. In the Bierzo, which has seen the medulla, the thermometer passes from 30ºC with relative humidity levels that have been below 30%.

Image | Civil Guard (X)

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