HE Curves come For him cannabis sector In the United States. Curved and slippery curves that will make it difficult for companies focused on that market for two reasons, both equally challenging. One is the imminent expiration of debt they face and that some experts encrypt in 6,000 million dollars. The other is The legal framework in which they are forced to operate, a context that deprives them of some of the advantages and facilities that companies in other sectors do in trouble.
There are those who already talk about bubble burst of cannabis in the US and fears that a bankruptcy waterfall now arrives.
A sector in trouble. There are no quiet times for the American cannabis industry, forced to deal with a series of challenges, including financing, debt expiration and laws. Bloomberg explains in A broad analysis which is summarized in a single sentence: companies in the sector face the need to deal with a millmillionary debt without the ‘Legal oxygen ball that they would have if their activity were another.
What does that mean? That because of the nature of his merchandise, cannabis, which It is still illegal In the eyes of the federal administration, companies in the sector face a particularly vulnerable situation when they have to deal with their creditors. Most businesses can resort to the bankruptcy court and shield themselves to renegotiate their debt; But like Remember From the firm Harris Beach Murtha, the companies dedicated to cannabis do not usually enjoy the protection of the US bankruptcy code.
“To date, US courts have been reluctant to administer bankrupt confirm In Fox Rothschild. “Virtually all bankruptcy cases involving a restructuring or sale of cannabis -related entities Controlled Substances Lawthe CSA “.
A figure: 6,000 million. This handicap, derived from the legal status of its merchandise at the federal level, is important right now because the sector faces the perspective of having to deal with a quite considerable debt in not much time. According to the calculations Shared with Bloomberg By Beau Whitney, chief economist of Whitney Economicsnext year will overcome a debt of up to 6,000 million dollars. And the figure includes only the largest companies in the sector, those that operate in several states.
And two percentages: 42 and 27%. That default figure (6,000 million dollars) is bulky, but alone it does not say much. If it is so important, it is because it catches the sector at a complex moment in which at least part of the industry has not yet managed to market legal marijuana a stable business. Whitney handles A couple of data They help to understand it: if in 2022 more than 42% of distributors claimed to have obtained benefits, last year that percentage had been reduced to 27%.
They are figures from the past, but as Bloomberg requires They talk to us of the future of the sector: part of those companies that have not yet been able to consolidate will probably end up broken. Others will have no choice but to sit with their creditors in a scenario that is not favorable.
“The refinancing of this cycle will be carried out at much higher interest rates and companies will not have the cash flow to manage it,” confirms the economistwhich speaks of “a huge debt bubble.”
What is the legal scenario? Marijuana Policy Project (MPP), an US organization dedicated to promoting legalization, explains it clearly: “Although the vast majority of states have reformed the laws on cannabis, the position of the federal government has remained practically unchanged since the early 70s. Except for rare circumstances, at the federal level marijuana and its products are illegal and They are subject to the application of the criminal law. “
Despite this federal framework, MPP remembers that “state governments record and regulate the production and sales of cannabis.” Right now There are states in which it allows the consumption of marijuana for medical but not recreational purposes, others that have legalized both uses and also certain territories in which it is totally illegal.
In A plane in which the regulatory framework of each of the states at the beginning of this year, the American Nonsmoker´s Rights Foundation (ANRF) calculated that there are 39 in which smoking is allowed at least for medicinal purposes.
Looking to the future. The result of this difference in criteria between the Federal Administration and the states themselves derives in a complex scenario, Recognize MPPin which a person “can fulfill a set of laws on marijuana and at the same time violate another.” Until now the federal government has not considered that state regulations shock with the Supreme clause which is pronounced in its favor in the Constitution, which is explained in part because the cultivation and sale falls on private companies.
Last year the Department of Justice He moved file For marijuana to be classified as a less dangerous substance, which would have direct effects on companies in the sector, reducing their expenses and favoring that many are “profitable”according to the industry itself. With the change of government and the arrival of Donald Trump to the White House (and his New prosecutor, Pam Bondi) An unknown is now opened.
And what are the figures? Apart from the legal framework, the 6,000 million debt about to defeat calculated by Whitney They tell us about something else: the weight and implementation that has reached the sector in the US. Pew Research Center data show that eight out of 10 Americans (79% of the population, to be exact) have at least one store where they can buy marijuana in their county.
Moreover, the same study center calculates that 54% of Americans He lives in a state that allows the recreational use of marijuana and around 15,000 dispensaries are distributed throughout the US, especially common on the west and northwest and points like Michigan or Oklahoma.
The Flowhub firm in fact indicates that the legal cannabis industry is directly related to 440,400 jobs full -time and that in 2024 cannabis contributed billions of dollars to the economy. In fact, the estimates that it manages suggest that this exercise will touch the 45,000 million dollarsgenerating in passing a large tax flow in public coffers, overcoming alcohol.
It’s cannabis … And it’s economy. Figures such as Flowhub help understand the scope of the cannabis industry in the US, but they are not the only ones that the sector handles. A report of Grand View Research estimated that in 2023 the US cannabis market amounted to 33.6 billion dollars and handled a growth forecast with an annual rate composed of 12.1% between 2024 and 2030. Today there are who predicts that by 2029 its market volume would touch the 50,000 million.
Images | Elsa Olofsson (Flickr), Cannabis Culture (Flickr) 1 and 2
In Xataka | Sorpasso begins: marijuana is already raising more taxes than alcohol in the United States