The problem of a “new March”

While I write this, the frontal systems associated with high impact storms Olivier “are abandoning the Canarian archipelago and the system Start moving The Peninsula. “The very brief advance of the summer that we have enjoyed these days is over and the rain returns. And no, it is not a rhetorical figure: the rain comes back and really returns.

With an aggravating aggravation: that will arrive in the Holy Week.

Olivier, at the doors. Late today on Thursday, April 10, La Borrasca will arrive at the Gulf of Cádiz and the first showers will appear (and a strong lift that will whip the Strait and the sea of ​​Alborán).

On Friday, however, the letters will be on the table. A process of instability will begin that will fill with water and calm a good part of the Peninsula. In fact, it will most likely also affect the Balearic Islands. The epicenter, as in recent weeks, will be The Atlantic aspect with the southwest of Andalusia, Galicia and the central system as protagonists.

So Holy Week is complicated. It is inevitable. For Saturday the showers associated with Olivier will affect much of the peninsular territory. Only the Mediterranean and the Canary Islands will fight from the cloudy skies and fresh temperatures. It will continue like this, with changes and particularities during the first half of the week.

The good news is that, always according to the models, for Thursday and Friday the situation will improve. Everything seems to indicate that rainfall will be in remission and it is difficult for them to be so generalized from then on. Only in the northwest it seems to keep raining.

Beyond Holy Week. And I do not mean “after” the Holy Week, but to that if we look at the general image that is going to give these weeks the situation that emerges is worrying. Not surprisingly, the ECMWF has just updated the monthly forecast of the SEAS5.

And what does it say? As Duncan Wingen saysthe European model bets “for an extremely rainy April in the southwest quadrant and peninsular center zone, with wet anomalies of up to 50 l/m2 compared to the average in Western Andalusia, Sierra de Gredos and locally in the community of Madrid”.

“This distribution in precipitation anomalies is indicative of a possible carousel of Atlantic storms, with southwest wind flows on the surface, providing abundant humidity through the Gulf of Cádiz.” That is to say, The same that happened in March.

Does that mean that we are going back to “infinite rain”? Not necessarily. After all, there is still a long time ahead. However, the possibility that Borrascas begins to arrive is on the table. And there comes a time when so much water can end up generating a problem.

Image | Copernicus

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