Aemet He has just published his prognosis For the next three weeks and there is only one valid conclusion: winter is over. It is true that the forecast is not very surprising because, on the one hand, winters are increasingly short and warm and, on the other, the weather spring begins on March 1.
However, we are not talking about something “normal.” Aemet’s forecasts temperatures above of the expected. That is, not only winter is over, but we are installed in a perpetual November.
What does the prognosis about this week say? To begin with, he says that the last week of February “it will probably be warmer than normal in most of Spain, especially in the north and east of the peninsula.” Balearic Islands will be the exception.
It is important to keep in mind that the situation will not be as tempered as in the previous week and that can distort our perception over it; But if we go to the data, it will be warmer than it should be the last week of February.
It will rain in some areas (especially at the northern end of the peninsula), but they will not have a great entity. And, as it begins to be tradition, it does not seem likely to reach the southwest.
And the next two weeks? According to Aemetthe trend “The most likely scenario for the following two weeks shows temperatures higher than normal for the time of year in practically the entire country.”
Precipitation is more difficult to determine, but everything seems to indicate that “during the week of March 3 to 9, the storms will circulate through latitudes superior to ours and that the most abundant rains are limited to the northwest end of the peninsula.”
To what extent can we trust this? This type of long -term forecasts are not as precious, valid and reliable as we do a week seen. And they are not because the weather pieces are not on the table and we cannot simulate how they will move in the next few days.
However, our ability to determine trends has improved a lot in recent years and consistently these predictions have been useful for preparing for the future.
What really matters. The problem, however, is not in what happens these three weeks. The problem is that, As they pointed from Meteotetuán“the trend is maintained.” A trend that will push large areas of the country to reunite with drought.
In Catalonia, in fact, the situation is already very complicated (Sau’s swamp, in the heart of the Ter-Llobregat system is below 6%) and, in Andalusia, there is no good news either. Not only that Málaga You have not managed to recover from drought; It is that in areas like Córdoba the situation has caused garlic production to move (In 83%) to other areas of the country.
May the trend be maintained, right now, it is a bad news.
Image | Tropical tidbits
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