ten million robots before 2040

For years we looked at Japan and thought of robots with friendly shapes, measured steps, and an almost theatrical ability to show us the future. SOHonda’s humanoid, was probably the best symbol of that era: a machine designed to impress, excite and demonstrate how far Japanese engineering could go. But the current debate is different. Japan no longer seems obsessed with recovering that icon, but with something more practical: bringing robots to the real world, where there is a lack of workers and repetitive tasks accumulate, and each unfilled shift begins to become an economic problem.

The Japanese plan. METI, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry of Japan, has put a very specific figure on the table: around 10 million robots deployed in 2040. The goal is part of the revised AI Robotics strategy, a robotics policy with AI to combine artificial intelligence and robotics in machines capable of acting in real environments. The new roadmap expands the focus to 18 application areas and incorporates sectors such as catering, food manufacturing and healthcare.

From icon to work. ASIMO did not disappear because Japan lost interest in robots, but because that road was no longer the center of gravity. Honda stopped developing ASIMO in 2018 and withdrew it from public demonstrations in 2022, while part of that learning moved to more applied lines, such as assistance or teleoperation. That transition sums up the current moment well: the country still has robotic muscle, but the question has changed. It is no longer enough to demonstrate that a machine can walk like us; Now you must justify what task you can take on and where you can do it.

Much more than humanoid. The 2040 target should not be read as a promise of millions of human-shaped robots. The strategy speaks of a much broader range, with industrial, mobile, healthcare, catering, logistics, inspection, maintenance and emergency response robots. Humanoids appear on the radar of the strategy when they make sense, but they are not the sole focus of the plan. The idea is to deploy machines where they can take on tasks that are repetitive, physical, dangerous or difficult to cover with sufficient personnel.

The demographic problem. The underlying reason is not in the fascination with technology, but in the lack of workers. Japan faces structural labor shortage marked by aging, low birth rate and an increasingly stressed active population. According to the Recruit Works Institutethe country could reach 2040 with a deficit of about 11 million workers. In this context, robots stop being a futuristic bet and become a way to keep care, services, logistics, food and production going.

A silent power. Context matters because Japan is not starting from scratch. Although today much of the noise about humanoid robots and new AI platforms comes from China or the United States, the country continues to be one of the major global players in industrial robotics. The International Federation of Robotics points out that Japan represented 38% of global industrial robot production in 2023, installed 44,500 units in 2024 and had about 450,500 robots in use.

The pending unknowns. The plan, however, still leaves open questions. Japan has set the goal, priority sectors and technological direction, but has not detailed which companies will manufacture this huge number of robots or how much of the deployment will depend on national suppliers or international alliances. We also do not know how the weight will be distributed between industrial robots, mobile systems, healthcare solutions or service machines.

The commitment to physical AI. The strategy is not only about deploying more machines, but about improving the intelligence that drives them. At the same press conference on June 30, 2026, METI announced that the consortium formed by Noetra and the National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology of Japan had been selected to develop a national multimodal foundation model, an AI foundation capable of combining different types of data. The idea is that this base can help build robots capable of interpreting information, combining signals from the environment and acting better in the physical world.

Images | Sling

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