a tugboat approaching a dutch drawbridge and watering it with their hoses; stopped trams in Leipzig, British supermarkets without chilled products, melted roads… They seem like a bunch of curious anecdotes about how Europeans survive one of their first real ‘heat waves’.
But they are not. Each of these failures is the symptom of a problem that, despite bombastic speeches and sickeningly detailed plans, we have persisted in forgetting: that climate change is serious.
And here we are.
A Europe that does not exist. For practical purposes, the event these days is the second heat wave that the continent has faced so far this year. We have seen incredible things: 37.3 in the United Kingdom, 37 in Denmark, 41.7 in Germany, 39.5 in Slovakia, 39.4 in the Netherlands… it is not only that the June highs have fallen in almost all the countries of Western and Central Europe, it is that absolute records have been broken (i.e. also July and August) in four countries.
According to World Weather Attributionis the most severe episode ever measured in the region studied: in 1976, such heat would have been “virtually impossible” in June. And that is perhaps the most important lesson of these days: that the Europe of 1976 no longer exists.
And we have begun to notice it in the worst possible way. Although we can make distinctions between what has happened these days (In Leipzig, the problem is that the sealant between the lane and the road surface softened to dangerous levels; while in Holland the bridges began to be refreshed by protocol without any problem being detected), the truth is that these are all signs that the European infrastructure is outdated.
Many of Europe’s roads, bridges and highways were designed for maximums between 32-35. Before, exceeding that limit was something anecdotal (in the 119 years between 1881 and 2000 There was only one day in Germany that measured 40° or more), today is the ‘new normal’ (last week there were 4 days like this).
It is important to note that so far I have not said anything about mortality. It will take some more time to have the complete data, but suffice it to say that France has already registered around 1000 deaths attributable to the heat wave.
The obvious question is… what have we been doing all along? While all this is happening, no one can claim ignorance or surprise: in March 2024, the European Union itself recognized in its first European Climate Risk Assessment that “Europe was not prepared” for what was coming, that policies “were not keeping pace with the increase in risks” and that incremental adaptation “was not going to be enough.”
I don’t want to say that nothing has been done. There are analyzes that say that without the adaptation of this century (things like heat plans, surveillance or the alert system) mortality would have been a 80% older. However, the data is there: no matter how much we have done, the deficit grows with each passing day.
And that means we’re not doing enough.
What can we expect? It seems like little or nothing. In recent years, public support for climate policies appears to have tempered. And there is a lot to do: we must not forget that estimates tell us that Europe’s air conditioning fleet will go from less than seven million devices in 1990 to more than one hundred million in 2030. That requires radical changes: an enormous reconversion that, given what we have seen, we do not know if we are going to want to undertake.
Europe knows what is coming and knows what it has to do. You have it planned, signed and approved. The question is whether he will do it before this stops being an anecdote and begins to become an unmanageable crisis.
Image | Bill Iliot
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