Everyone seems to be clear that AI is going to have an impact on the labor market, the problem is that They do not agree on what that impact will be like.. While some say that will destroy many jobsothers predict that will create many more. In the midst of this discussion, a group of experts met to try to imagine what the world will be like in 2030. Spoiler: it doesn’t look good.
The meeting. They tell it in the Wall Street Journal. Last week, 40 experts in areas such as technology, economics and public policy met in a building in Washington. At the meeting they analyzed scenarios on how AI will transform American society by 2030. Their objective was to propose strategies to minimize the negative impact on a social level, because they assume there will be one.
The meeting was organized by Windfall Trustan independent organization that seeks to anticipate and manage the changes that AI will bring, designing policies and legal frameworks so that wealth is distributed fairly.
Macro prosperity. The scenario that was proposed at the meeting was called ‘Prosperity on paper’. In it, these experts draw a flourishing economy in macro indicators, but that hides an important social problem. In this scenario, AI has almost doubled the US GDP, labor productivity is skyrocketing, and the S&P500 index is rising.
Micro precariousness. On paper everything is perfect, but the reality is that society is going through a serious employment problem, not because of the rise in unemployment (which is also true) but because of what they call “underemployment”, which is expected to rise from 8 to 14%. Many people have casual, part-time jobs or are forced to accept jobs for which they are overqualified.
Blue collar jobs. It seems clear that the impact of AI on employment will mainly affect white-collar workers, that is, office workers. Many see an opportunity in blue collar jobs such as plumbing, electricity or masonry. However, according to these experts, although there will be an increase in demand and salaries for these professions, it will be temporary. All those office workers will flock to learn traditional trades, which will cause an increase in supply and a drop in value.
cso everything bad. Experts predict that this contrast between what the data says and the reality of the working class will cause political unrest to skyrocket, the generation gap to widen, and also a decrease in the birth rate due to the discontent of young people. But not everything will be bad, they also foresee that healthcare and education will be cheaper thanks to AI tools and that people will have more free time to do creative activities.
So what. The objective of the meeting was to propose possible policies to prevent this scenario from occurring and attendees had several ideas. The proposals focus on two major fronts: on the one hand, an effort to requalify and train workers, and on the other, create mechanisms that allow the wealth generated by AI to be redistributed, such as the universal basic income that Elon Musk himself mentionedspecific taxes on AI companies and even creating a sovereign fund where part of the profits go.
The attendees themselves admitted that political polarization will make it very difficult to approve reforms of this caliber, although they are clear that leaving things as they are will probably be much more expensive.
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