The big bottleneck in the artificial intelligence industry has nothing to do with AI models, GPUs, or data centers. It has to do with memory, and for months we are immersed in a crisis of which now the manufacturers give us more information. Three companies—Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron—control 90% of global production, but current estimates indicate that between the three They can only cover about 60% of expected demand through 2027. That’s terrible news not only for AI, but also for everything non-AI.
The era of memory scarcity. These three manufacturers have prioritized HBM production for AI accelerators because these memories leave better margins. The direct consequence is the shortage of DRAM memories, which are used in PCs and mobile phones, and since October 2025 we have seen how this market has skyrocketed in price. Betting everything on one segment has left the other dangerously neglected.
Samsung will have new factories. According to indicate In Nikkei, Samsung plans to launch its fourth memory manufacturing plant in Pyeongtaek, South Korea, in 2026, although mass production will not begin until 2027 or later. Furthermore, not only memories will be manufactured in that plant. There is a fifth plant under construction on that same technology campus, but it will be dedicated to HBM chips and will not begin operating until at least 2028. The South Korean giant has another ace up its sleeve: the United States.
HBM to power. SK Hynix is the only one of the three that has a concrete supply improvement for 2026, because it has already started manufacturing HBM chips at its Cheongju plant in February. It is also accelerating construction of a plant in Yongin, near Seoul, with the goal of completing it by February 2027.
Micron also asks for patience. Meanwhile, Micron, the American company, has the goal of starting production of HBM chips in Idaho and Singapore in 2027, and will build a factory in Hiroshima that will theoretically come into operation in 2028. It has also just purchased a plant in Taiwan from Powechip, but the chips that come out of it will not be available before the second half of 2027.
This is not enough. The consulting firm Counterpoint Reserach estimates that in order to resolve the current DRAM crisis, an industry-wide production increase of 12% annually until 2027 would be required. However, current plans add up to a growth of 7.5%, which makes it clear that these expansions by these three manufacturers are not enough. For Counterpoint analysts, the consequence is clear: the balance between supply and demand will not be normalized until 2028. SK Hynix is already talking about supply limitations for AI chips could last until 2030, and the truth is that all the forecasts only confirm that this problem will still last for years.
We consumers pay the price. Memory is an absolutely transversal product that is everywhere. 80-90% of current memory chips go to computers, mobile phones and servers, and the rest to cars and industrial equipment. The most direct impact is already in the mobile market entry-level: memory already represented 20% of the manufacturing bill for one of these smartphones, but that figure is expected to reach 40% by mid-2026. That gives manufacturers few (or no) options, which will impact that cost on the price of these devices. And so with everything. IDC esteem that mobile sales will fall by 13% in 2026 due to this circumstance.
The danger of cycles. The memory industry has a history of cycles in which the rise and fall of memory prices is traditional. In 2023 there was a collapse in prices after post-pandemic demand for PCs faded. Several manufacturers recorded historic losses, and learned the lesson of overproducing to meet demand. Now that we need more production, manufacturers are being much more cautious when it comes to increasing their production or investing in new factories. For them, by the way, the crisis is going great: Samsung has earned in three months of 2026 what it earned in all of 2025.
China to the rescue. Although South Korea and the United States dominate global memory production, there are several Chinese manufacturers that are gradually gaining relevance. YMTC and CXMT They have been growing significantly in production for some time and that is making now have a golden opportunity to gain market share over competitors that they seemed unattainable.
Image | Liam Briese
GIPHY App Key not set. Please check settings