A ballistic missile can reach speeds greater than Mach 10 and travel thousands of kilometers in less than half an hour, even leaving the atmosphere before falling back towards its target. That combination of speed and height is what has made this type of weapon one of the pillars of military strategy since the mid-20th century.
Europe enters the map. A few days ago, Iran crossed a line that had been theoretical for years. The launch of missiles towards Diego Garcíaabout 4,000 kilometers away, was not only a military movement, it was a full-fledged strategic message.
This distance is approximately equivalent to that between Iran from many European capitals. For the first time, range has ceased to be a hypothesis and has become something demonstrated in combat. Because although the missiles failed, the gesture changes the board, and Europe is no longer out of reach conflict potential.
What really happened. Iran fired two long range missiles towards a joint base of the United States and the United Kingdom in the Indian Ocean. One failed during flight and the other was intercepted by American defenses.
The attack did not achieve the desired impact, but it did demonstrate a capacity that until now had not been shown clearly. It is not so much the result that matters in this case, but the fact that Iran decided to use that type of weapons. In other words, the step indicates a change in your strategy and your willingness to escalate the conflict.
The jump to 4,000 km. Until now, Iran had defended that it limited the range of its missiles to about 2,000 kilometers, a range that covered the Middle East but left out Western Europe. However, the attempted attack suggests it can operate at much greater distances, close to 4,000 kilometers.
That figure places cities within its potential radius, for example, like London or Paris. Also to a large extent from southern Europeincluding Spain in certain scenarios. The key is not whether you can do it accurately. The thing is that distance is no longer a clear limit.
Diego Garcia
How these missiles work. Ballistic missiles continue an arc path after being launched by a rocket. The larger the scope, the larger it should be rocket size and the technical problems are more complex. The reason: increased vibrations, heat on re-entry and navigation errors.
There are “tricks”, for example, to gain distance weight can be reduced of the explosive charge, but that limits its destructive capacity. Additionally, accuracy worsens the longer the flight. Therefore, reaching a distant objective is not the same as doing so with real military effectiveness.
More psychological than operational. The results of the attack itself they point to their limits. Only two missiles were launched, and one missed and the other was intercepted. This suggests, a priori, that Iran does not have of large quantities of this type of weaponry nor high reliability at these distances.
Furthermore, Western defense systems are designed precisely to intercept this type of threats. In a real scenario, the missiles would be few, inaccurate and faced with advanced defenses. The military impact would be limited, while the political impact, on the other hand, would be much greater.
Europe, with Spain, within the calculation. If you also want, the important change is not technical, but rather strategic. Until now, Europe viewed the conflict as something very distant. With this movement, enter of range calculationalthough the immediate risk is low, because being within the potential radius changes perception security.
In that sense, Spain, due to its geographical position, is at the extreme of that theoretical scope. It is not an immediate objective, much less probable. But stop being off the map. And so, in strategic termsit is already a relevant change.
The message in the middle of war. In short, everything indicates that the main objective of the launch It was not so much destroying the base, but send a signal. Demonstrate capacity, surprise your adversaries and increase international pressure.
At a time when Iran is under severe military and economic pressure, showing that it can expand the conflict is a form of brutal deterrence. Also a message to the United States, to its allies and to all of Europe. And as in many phases of war, the psychological effect it may be even more important than the material result.
Image | Ballistic Missile, Google Earth
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