The war between the United States, Israel and Iran is shaking the foundations of the historic independence of the nations that make up the European Free Trade Association (EFTA or EFTA). Faced with an increasingly volatile geopolitical panorama, Iceland, Norway and Switzerland find themselves at a crossroads and look, each at their own pace, towards the European Union in search of refuge.
The question that now haunts European parliaments is no longer just political, but purely industrial: are they willing to sacrifice parts of their sovereignty in exchange for the protection and stability that Brussels offers?
As explained to the newspaper Five Days Sophie Altermatt, economist at Julius Baer, these countries face external pressures from increasingly interventionist superpowers. The United States has become a much less predictable ally on trade and security, while China’s growing ambitions endanger European industrial competitiveness and create vulnerabilities in supply chains.
The rhetoric of US President Donald Trump, who has even suggested his intention to annex Greenland, has acted as a powerful catalyst for this change in mentality. As the magazine warns The Spectatorquoting a maxim from Mark Carney: “If you’re not at the table, you’re on the menu.” The return of hard power politics is forcing middle powers to reevaluate their place in the world.
From the European side, the door is open. As detailed by the Icelandic public broadcaster RÚVEU Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos has stressed that the current geopolitical context is fundamentally different from the past and that EU membership offers “an anchor in a bloc based on values, prosperity and security.”
Are we facing a real approach?
Moving towards greater integration implies sitting at the table where decisions are made, but also assuming a clash of sovereignties. Ine Marie Eriksen Søreide, leader of the Norwegian Conservative Party, acknowledged in a parliamentary debate collected by Five Days that remaining outside the Union generates enormous vulnerabilities, since their country remains “on the margins of everything we want to enter into.”
However, the price of admission is high. Political analyst Thomas Vermes explains in the Norwegian middle ABC Nyheter that the EU is transforming towards a federation where supranational organizations assume more and more authority. Entering means submitting to decisions by qualified majority – where large countries have more demographic weight – and growing pressure to eliminate the right to veto on key issues. In addition, it would imply assuming joint economic burdens, such as the common debt of 90 billion euros contracted to help Ukraine.
In fact, the possible entry of Ukraine would radically transform the bloc’s economy. According to the same Norwegian mediathe incorporation of the 41 million hectares of Ukrainian agricultural land would flood the markets and force rural aid to be restructured.
Three countries, three different rhythms
The answer to this dilemma varies drastically depending on the resources each nation brings to the table.
Iceland: The direct path and the referendum in sight
The Icelandic government has stepped on the accelerator and passed a resolution to hold a referendum on August 29, 2026 on resuming EU membership, a measure supported by 57% of the population.
Iceland would provide the EU with a vital logistics position in the emerging Arctic trade routes and strategic supply: already is the fourth largest supplier of aluminum of the block, material that accounts for more than half of its exports to Europe. Nevertheless, as reported RÚVthe Minister of Foreign Affairs, Þorgerður Katrín Gunnarsdóttir, has drawn a non-negotiable red line: she will not sign any agreement that involves ceding control over the island’s precious natural resources to the EU.
Norway: The fractured debate
Although the country rejected joining the EU in 1972 and 1994, the debate has been resurrected. According to The Spectatorthe conservative party (Høyre), now led by the determinedly pro-European Ine Eriksen Søreide, is “clearly a yes party.” Polls show an increase in support for accession, rising from 27% in 2023 to 41% in 2025. However, the current Labor government of Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre is strongly opposed.
Despite not being a member, Norway is Europe’s absolute energy guarantor after the invasion of Ukraine: it supplies 51.8% of the pipeline gas and 14.6% of the crude oil consumed by the EU. Precisely for this, the internal opposition is fierce. Columnist Hans Christian Hansen warns in the financial journal Finansavisen that the EU is losing technological ground to the US and Asia. According to Hansen, while the US uses energy to attract industry, the EU uses it to “self-regulate with increasing rigor” and promote projects of uncertain profitability such as offshore wind. The question he asks his compatriots is brutal: “Do we want to link our energy policy, our industry and our future to a team that is already losing?”
Switzerland: The pragmatic path and bilateral agreements
Unlike the Nordics, Switzerland does not contemplate full accession so as not to compromise its historical neutrality, but it is making progress in its economic and technological integration. President Ursula von der Leyen and Swiss President Guy Parmelin They signed the “Bilateral III” package. This framework modernizes agreements on transport and free movement, and adds crucial pacts on health, food security and Swiss participation in the European space agency and the Horizon Europe and Erasmus+ programmes. In addition, it will allow it to fully enter the internal electricity market in the EU.
The objective of the Federal Council is “stabilize and future-proof the proven bilateral track“. The Federal Council approved the sending of this package to the Parliamentor, proposing to subject it to an optional referendum to guarantee its democratic legitimacy on sensitive issues such as salary protection. Switzerland’s weight is undeniable: in 2023, bilateral trade in services reached €245 billion, representing almost 9% of the EU’s total services trade.
Forecasts in sight?
The geopolitical board will continue to move. If Iceland eventually joins the EU, the pressure on Norway will be immense. As conservative leader Søreide arguesNorway would be in a “completely different situation” if its EFTA partner makes the leap. For its part, Switzerland faces internal challenges, driving votes to limit its population to 10 million in 2027, which would clash with the free movement of Brussels.
Ultimately, the global storm has returned Europe to its most primal instincts of survival and cooperation. Iceland, Norway and Switzerland look at the map and understand that absolute isolation is a dangerous luxury. The big question is no longer whether they need Europe, but what price for their identity, their energy and their sovereignty they are willing to pay to protect themselves from chaos.
To facilitate the integration of these countries, the idea of a “two-speed Europe” is beginning to gain strength. As he explains Vermes, six of the largest economies in the EU (Germany, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland and Spain) have formed the “E6” group with the aim of promoting joint decisions and circumventing veto blocks from the rest of the states. This restructuring of the community system could allow countries like Iceland or Norway to integrate with fewer commitments in certain areas, although losing their voting capacity in areas where they do not participate.
Image | freepik
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