Every time you start your car in the morning or a factory turns on its machines in Europe, the bill rises at the rate of conflicts that occur thousands of kilometers away. To give you an idea of the hole: in 2023 alone, the European Union spent 427 billion euros buying energy abroad. We are talking about a drain of more than 1,000 million euros a day.
This chronic dependency forces us to pay what the Transport & Environment organization (TEA) calls a “geopolitical bonus”. As we have analyzed recently in Xatakathe logistics bottleneck and the current crisis in the Middle East threaten to replicate the worst scenarios of shortages and volatility of the past.
Cushioning the blow. Precisely to mitigate this premium and as an urgent response to this scenario – marked by the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and the war in Iran – the Government of Spain, through MITECOhas just authorized the release of up to 11.5 million barrels of oil from its strategic reserves.
This measure represents the Spanish contribution (2.9%) to the historic contingency plan of the International Energy Agency (IEA) to inject 400 million barrels in the global market. The mobilization, which will begin immediately by putting into circulation the equivalent of four days of national consumption, seeks to contain price volatility and avoid panic in the face of a suffocated supply.
The toll of European vulnerability. The repercussions of the war are falling directly on the pockets of families and the competitiveness of companies, creating a bottleneck in the great global funnel of fossil fuels. The figures from previous crises paint a gloomy picture: when a barrel of crude oil exceeded the $100 barrier in 2022, the bloc’s energy gap skyrocketed to 604 billion euros, an extra 500 million a day.
The suffocation of the great global funnel. The economic weight of this European vulnerability is divided today into three major fronts:
- The hit to the driver: According to analysts TEAwith crude oil set at $100, EU motorists will pay an additional 55 billion euros in one year. This is equivalent to an average increase in costs of 220 euros per year per driver. In fact, the price of gasoline at the pumps threatens to consolidate around 2 euros per liter, an increase of 24% compared to the average recorded in 2025.
- Industrial asphyxiation: While the International Energy Agency (IEA) releases 400 million barrels of strategic reserves to buy time, experts warn that the barrel could be close to $200. The volatility has caused European gas futures to jump 30% in a single day, recording massive electrical fluctuations that push entire factories toward insolvency.
- Handcuffed governments: Unlike the massive social shield deployed in 2022, European governments today have a much narrower fiscal margin due to accumulated deficits. Despite this, given the fear of deindustrialization caused by this extreme volatility, Brussels already considering breaking taboos and intervene in the market through tax cuts and caps on electricity tolls.
An electric shield against the crisis. Faced with this scenario of chronic vulnerability, the technological and energy transition is acting as a real financial firewall. In last analysis of TEA explains that The current energy crisis will affect gasoline cars five times more than the charging of electric vehicles (EV).
The numbers behind the wheel leave no room for doubt. With the rise in crude oil prices, traveling 100 kilometers in an average gasoline car would cost 14.20 euros, compared to just 6.50 euros for recharging an EV. If we look at company fleets, the monthly extra cost derived from the crisis would amount to 89 euros per combustion car, compared to only 16 additional euros for electric cars.
At a macroeconomic level, the electric vehicles that already circulate on European roads prevented the import of crude oil worth 2.9 billion euros in 2025. Since TEA They emphasize that maintaining climate ambition and accelerate the mass adoption of these vehicles would avoid the payment of 45 billion euros in foreign crude oil over the next decade.
A clear winner: the geopolitical paradox. This situation redefines the energy map and yields a clear winner. The suffocation in global supply has caused an unprecedented geopolitical paradox: the United States has been forced to issue emergency waivers to prevent India’s collapse, allowing it to buy Russian crude oil stranded at sea. As a result of this crisis, Vladimir Putin’s crude oil has gone from being sold at huge discounts to commanding a historic premium in the markets.
Despite the enormous economic pressure and the fact that the crisis directly benefits hostile powers, the European Commission remains firm in its veto. EU Energy Commissioner Dan Jørgensen has emphatically assured that they will not import “not one molecule” of energy from Russia.
Geography is destiny. The current crisis in the Strait of Hormuz is a painful reminder that structural dependence on fossil fuels remains the great Achilles heel of the Old Continent. As Antony Froggatt warnsexpert of TEA: “Europe must prioritize electric vehicles, heat pumps and renewable energy to ensure this does not happen again.”
As long as economies remain tied to the trade routes of an unstable Persian Gulf, the economic security of European citizens will depend on conflicts thousands of kilometers away. Accelerating the end of fossil fuels is no longer solely a climate imperative; Today it is the most pragmatic decision for national security and economic survival that Europe can make.
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