The almond trees throughout Spain are already in bloom and that is fantastic news for the sector. Or also a disaster

40 years ago, on January 10, the father of Simplisíssimus told him it would be a bad year for the almond. The reason was simple: when the trees flowered early, the almond embryo was exposed (“weak and sensitive”) to late frosts that could destroy entire crops. Therefore, the good time for flowering was March, he explained.

And he must have been right, but in the last 44 years it has been increasingly difficult to prove it. According to an article published by AEMETSince 1981, the flowering of the almond tree has been advancing systematically and documented throughout the country.

But it seems that, at least in some areas, this has changed this year. If confirmed, it could be good news.

When do almond trees bloom? According to the work of the Autonomous University of Madrid, the Senckenberg Research Institute and AEMETin these 40 years, the median flowering date in the center of the peninsula has moved from February 12 to February 7. Of course, the progress has not been linear: it has accelerated in recent years.

At a historical level, the most advanced in recent decades was in 1993 (around January 8).

And why should we care? In general terms, because the almond tree is the most extensive woody crop in Spain and, in fact, it is growing: in the last decade the dedicated area has grown by 34%. The almendril madness in the country is such that, well, Spain leads the sector with 765,000 hectares productive.

That is, it is an issue that matters to us as a country.

So, we’re talking about good news, right? It will depend on how the weather goes from now on and, furthermore, we must not forget that It has not been like this in all places. However, as has been happening lately in the field, it can be (at the same time) good news and bad news.

Good because a big harvest would help remove volatility that the almond has had in recent years, because it would help generate rural employment in a year which is expected to be complicated by flooding and will give a break to agricultural insurance.

And yet, a good harvest can end up delaying a fundamental debate: that of varieties. The only way the sector has adapt to climate changes is betting on late or hyperlate variants. They are not a magic solution, but it is a solution.

The question is whether the global almond giant, up to its eyeballs in debt, will understand that it has to make a move.

Image | Tim Mossholder

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