That the United States is the absolute reference of the West is a reality that we have been seeing all our lives: American Way of Life from the 1950s to the hackneyed phrase “without us, you would all be speaking German” that Trump took it upon himself to remember in Davos and that we have seen countless times in war films. Spain has its own version of that story with Welcome, Mister Marshall.
But Trump returned to the White House willing to fulfill his promise to “Make American Great Again” at any price: immigration management with ICE as the executing arm about their citizenship, threats to Greenland or tariffs as a tool of permanent pressure. His ways are more reminiscent of a school bully than of a leader running one of the most powerful countries on the planet. And Europe? Well, between caution, diplomacy and even turning the other cheek.
The million-dollar question is whether Europe has as little room for maneuver as it appears. The answer, according to a recent analysis from the German institute Dezernat Zukunft, no.
United States > Europe. In case it was necessary to remember the power of the United States in general, it has the largest GDP in the world according to the IMFit is also the country with more military spendingthe dollar It is the world reserve currency par excellence since 1945. Furthermore, leads in digital infrastructure and semiconductors (in design and sales), almost half the world share. In fact, as Dezernat Zukunft points outnot even the 10 largest European countries combined compete with those key indicators of material power.
But power is not negotiating ability. The United States is the strongest in the yard, but Europe has the leverage. And here the game board changes. A close example: the gas key. Russia’s GDP It is less than the ninth part of the EUbut Russia has something that Europe needs: the gas required to heat in winter. Changing suppliers overnight was unfeasible.
Europe is a succulent client. The magnificent seven (Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, Nvidia, Tesla, Meta) have an important part of their market in Europe. According to estimates by Dezernat Zukunftthese big tech companies generate more than $500 billion annually in Europe alone. If the old continent closes the market or fines them, their stock market shares would suffer a severe blow.
And this point is not only important for companies. The magnificent seven They represent a third of the entire S&P 500the index in which the pension plans of millions of Americans are invested. If these big tech companies lose Europe, North American seniors earn less when they retire and that can be dramatic on a social and political level.
Europe controls nuclear fuel. On Donald Trump’s roadmap Nuclear power plants are being built everywhere, but the United States does not have enough enriched uranium to supply itself in the short or medium term. Europe, through companies such as Urenco and Orano, is the main supplier of enriched uranium to the US, according to data from the Energy Information Agency.
If the EU turns off the tap by prioritizing its own supply, the United States would have a problem meeting its nuclear needs, a key element for powering AI data centers. Because in the artificial intelligence race, The US desperately needs energy.
Europe manufactures the turbines. To achieve enough electricity to meet the demand of data centers for AI, a specific type of gas turbines (40 – 60 MW) is also needed and here a European company is the queen: Siemens Energy. Siemens Energy’s SGT-800 has delivery times of one to three years, in a market where general deadlines have skyrocketed to seven years due to the demand for data centers, according to Utility Dive.
Europe does not even need to turn its back on the United States, prioritizing its own orders would be enough for US artificial intelligence projects to suffer a few valuable years of delay. And time is money: the cost for large US technology operators could exceed 50 billion euros, according to Dezernat Zukunft estimates.
American debt is fragile. The US dollar accounts for 58% of world reserves, but its weight as a reserve currency has been declining for two decades. USA accumulate a deficit of 1.8 trillion dollars annually that is financed by issuing debt and needs buyers. The problem is that central banks have stopped buying that debt: now it is speculative investment funds based in London that support the market.
For the German institute, Europe has regulatory tools to discourage the purchase of American debt and favor European debt. If American bond rates rise, mortgages, credit and public spending in the US become more expensive. And we have seen it recently: when 30-year bonds exceeded 5%, Trump backed down in their tariffs.
Europe is the best customer for gas. USA is the main supplier of LNG to the EU. However, if war conflicts allow it, starting in 2027 The International Energy Agency plans a gas surplus that will change the balance: sellers will need buyers and not the other way around.
Dezernat Zukunft explains that due to geographical proximity, Europe is the best customer for the US, so if the United States tried to use gas as a weapon, it would be making a fatal mistake: it would sink the profits of its gas industry and Europe could buy gas from other countries. In fact, the EU is already working on it.
Who needs who more. Although from an objective and abstract point of view parameters such as the largest army or the most powerful economy make Europe look weaker compared to the United States, Dezernat Zukunft highlights one power: that of necessity. And on some issues, the US needs Europe as much or more than Europe needs the US. It is not that Europe does not have cards to play, it is that it is difficult for it to agree to play them.
Cover | Frederic Köberl and Library of Congress
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