If there is a way out of demographic pitJapan still hasn’t found it. And not for lack of effort. Although all your effortsof the imagination and million-dollar investment that has been allocated to birth policies, its balance of births continues to be disastrous. The last one has just been published by the Government and shows that in 2025 they were born in Japan 15,179 fewer babies than in 2024. It is the tenth consecutive year of decline, a new historical low and above all a scenario in which Japan did not expect to find itself until 2042.
The question is: Is Tokyo willing to cover this birth rate disaster with a greater migratory flow, the demographic table that keeps afloat other countries?
What has happened? that Japan has received a hard bath of demographic reality, something that is beginning to be common. The Ministry of Health has just published the birth rate for 2025, a document that leaves little room for optimism. Throughout last year, 705,809 babies were born in the country, a bad figure no matter how you look at it. It represents the lowest record since statistics began to be compiled in 1899, and above all it confirms that the birth rate has been declining for ten consecutive years… with no prospect of improvement.
In annual terms, these 705,809 births represent a decrease of 2.1% compared to 2024. If we look further back, to the last decade, the drop is around 30%. The only good news is that the data improves (slightly) some forecasts launched by the Japanese press a few months ago and that the speed at which the birth rate falls seems to be slowing down little by little. At least it is lower than that of the 2022-2024 period, when it exceeded 5% annually.
Is it that bad news? Yes. For several reasons. The main one is that the Japanese demographic crisis is worsening much faster than the Government believed, which years ago prepared for a pessimistic scenario.
In 2023 the National Population and Security Research Institute and Social Security (IPSS) published a report in which it calculated that the number of annual births would not decrease to 700,000 until 2042. The reality is that the country has already moved within that range in 2025, 17 years than expected. What’s more, the IPSS estimated that 774,000 babies would be born in 2025. The actual data that we know today (705,809) is closer to its most pessimistic projection (681,000).
Why is it a problem? Because Japan is proving that, despite its multiple attempts, it has not managed to close its demographic gap. It is not just that their birth rate is falling, it is that vegetative growth (difference between births and deaths) gives clear alarm signals. Although the deaths have decreased by 0.8%the Japanese population shrank by 899,845 people last year.
Media like Nikkei either The Japan Times In recent hours, they have published analyzes that warn of the gradual aging of the country and (above all) the pressure it puts on its social security system and pensions.
There will be something positive, right? More or less. The statistics leave some positive readings or that show possible paths to follow, although with nuances. For example, in 2025 marriages increased slightly compared to the previous year (1.1%) to reach 505,656. The question is whether this rebound is the result of the hangover from the pandemic, when many couples postponed their weddings.
Another curious fact is that there are territories that seem to have hit the right demographic key: in Tokyo the births increased by about 1.3% last year, reaching 88,518, and it is estimated that its metropolitan area accounts for almost a third (30%) of all births registered in the country.
What is the solution? The big question. The difficult thing is to answer it. Japan has tried with economic and labor incentives, programs for pair…Everything to boost your birth rate, a goal to which you have dedicated millions and millions. It has been of little use to him. There are those who believe that in this scenario a possible salvation is to rethink the national immigration policy.
“Refusing to accept an adequate flow of migrants is not only ignoring economic reality, but giving up on our collective future,” pointed recently to The World Akito Tanaka, from the Migrant Solidarity Network.
“Policies that are increasingly limiting the entry of foreign workers are exacerbating precisely this problem,” Tanaka insists.who warns that Japan faces “an unprecedented demographic crossroads.” The latest data from the Ministry of Health actually leaves an interesting idea: the 705,809 babies registered in Japan in 2025 not only correspond to births to parents of Japanese origin, but also include foreigners.
What is Tokyo’s position? It does not seem very willing to bet on foreigners to revive its population. In fact just yesterday transcended that Japan’s immigration agency has tightened the guidelines that applicants for permanent residence must comply with. In practice the changes make it more difficult meet the requirements to obtain the visa, for which it is key to demonstrate good conduct and financial self-sufficiency, among other conditions.
It’s not exactly new. It has been known for months that the government of the conservative Sanae Takaichi was planning double the time minimum stay that foreigners must remain in Japan to qualify for citizenship.
Can it change? In the midst of an avalanche of international tourism (which has generated multiple tensions between foreign visitors and the native population) the presence of foreigners has become a relevant issue in Japanese politics. In fact, after taking the reins of the Government, Takaichi did not take long to promote an immigration policy that revolves around regulations with an eloquent name: “Law for a society of orderly coexistence with foreigners.” His last results at the polls They show that their position does not upset the electorate.
Image | Andrew Leu (Unsplash)
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