If we take a brief look at how February 2026 is ending (the sun, the 20 degrees, the haze, the candy-like reservoirs), it is difficult not to say to ourselves: “Finally some good weather!” Above all, if we take into account that after these days of calm, a front will enter from the northwest, inaugurating meteorological spring in style.
And yet, it is inevitable to raise an eyebrow.
But let’s start at the beginning…. The arrival of a front from the northwest is not only synonymous with rain, but with a progressive drop in temperature and the return of the frosts after disappearing for a few days. Of course, the southern half is not going to notice it too much.
Otherwise, the haze has been there for days causing problems (and locust rains in the Canary Islands) and, in the background, a DANA starts to give signs about what will approach Andalusia on Monday or Tuesday.
Where is spring? If that’s the question, the answer is that it’s already here. Not just because this weekend ‘astronomic spring’ beginsbut because the meteorological dynamics have made everything accelerate in a strange way. Neither the processions deceiveneither allergies disappear.
And that means the trap is already here. Because, although the reservoirs are full, they are not filled homogeneously. While Spain is at 83%, there are many basins with many problems (the Segura is at 47.2% and that of Júcar at 63.7%).
And, starting in March, both evaporative demandas consumption (agricultural irrigation, urban peaks, tourism) skyrocket. Therefore, with the history of poor management that we have in the country and this feeling of “false security” that is spreading, having the reservoirs full unfortunately means nothing. Absolutely nothing.
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More problems, many problems. To all this we must add that we do not know what is going to happen from now on. We will never know, it is true: but this precipitation scenario is so new and unusual that all scenarios are open.
The only thing that is clear is that, if we do not start managing the forest, forest fires are going to mark the country as soon as the heat arrives.
The new normal? That is the second big question because the pan-European studies agree that we are going towards an earlier start of spring compared to previous decades. But no one is very clear if this is an anomaly or a first step.
What is clear is that, no matter what happens, this is especially noticeable here in the south. And that is the first big question: Are we prepared? Are we willing to do what we have to do?
Image |AEMET
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was originally published in
Xataka
by
Javier Jimenez
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