For nearly two decades, SpaceX’s mantra has been unequivocal: colonize Mars. The red planet was not just a destination, it was the reason for being of the company and one of the clearest objectives in Elon Musk’s mind. But this has completely changed, since Musk himself has confirmed what had been rumored among investors: priorities have changed to focus on something simpler.
A new city. SpaceX has put the handbrake on immediate Martian colonization to focus all its efforts on a closer and more pragmatic objective: building a “self-sustaining city” on the Moon in less than 10 years. And the reason is not just economic, it is a question of pure and simple orbital physics.
The window problem. The change of focus, as explained by Elon Musk himselfresponds to the need for quick results. In the case of aerospace engineering, the speed of development depends on how many times you can test, fail, and test again. And this is where Mars is a real logistical nightmare.
As detailed, to travel to Mars efficiently you have to wait for the orbital alignment of the planets to occur, which happens once every 26 months. Something to which we must add a trip of approximately six months, so it is not easy to have missions in a row, but rather they would have to be spaced almost three years apart.
The windows of the Moon. While Mars needs a large amount of time to deliver results, the Moon is much easier, since Elon Musk himself recognizes that the launch window is constant. Specifically, every 10 days approximately A new mission can be launched that has a travel time of just a few days.
Musk summarizes it with industrial logic: the Moon allows us to iterate much faster. If the goal is to secure the future of civilization with a colony outside Earth, the lunar path is the fast track.
A lunar city. The goal is not to put a flag back on the lunar surface, but to establish a city that is capable of growing on its own autonomously. According to ABC Newsthe plan involves prioritizing lunar missions with a possible first unmanned lunar landing around 2027, with a view to having that permanent presence in less than a decade.
This finally aligns Musk’s personal interests with government contracts. Let’s not forget that SpaceX has a multi-million dollar contract with NASA to the Artemis programwhere the Starship HLS will be the vehicle in charge of lowering the astronauts to the lunar surface. By making the Moon SpaceX’s “civilization” priority, Musk ensures that the development of its giant rocket serves both its customers (NASA) and its new private roadmap.
Among investors. Like any good company of this type, behind it is a large number of people who must be accountable and, above all, offer immediate benefits. In this case, SpaceX formally notified its investors last Friday about this change of course: unmanned missions to Mars, initially planned for the end of 2026, are postponed indefinitely.
For Wall Street and the big funds, this turnaround is music to their ears for two key reasons. The first of them is that the Moon offers a modelable revenue narrative and deadlines that depend on signed contracts, as is the case with Artemis and NASA.
The second is that investors need security so that they continue investing money in the company. In this case, this change of course protects the company’s astronomical valuationwhich seeks to consolidate itself in the billion-dollar club after the boost of xAIeliminating the immediate risk of a failed mission to Mars.
What about Mars? This decision does not mean goodbye to the original dream of the company and of Musk himself, but rather it is a reality check. For now, Musk maintains the goal of trying to build a city on Mars within 5 to 7 years, but the narrative has changed: Mars is no longer the first critical step, but the second.
In this way, the Moon will serve as a testing ground, a spaceport and, above all, as the place where humanity will learn to live outside of Earth without having to wait two years for supplies if something goes wrong.
Images | SpaceX
In Xataka | SpaceX is known for its rockets. What is less known is its growing and striking fleet of aircraft
GIPHY App Key not set. Please check settings