How is it possible that Spain is freezing in the middle of a ‘warmer than normal’ winter?

When you look out the window these days, it’s easy to ask yourself a very clear question: didn’t they say that This was going to be a warmer than normal winter.? With the storm Francis opening the door, followed by Ingrid and Joseph, and the snow level plummeting up to 500 meters in the northwest, the thermal sensation in January 2026 is far from “mild”. And although we can think of an error by the AEMET in its predictions at the beginning of the season, the problem is in the probabilities

What was said. The AEMET in his initial prediction For this winter they did not use a crystal ball to ensure days of sun and beach, but rather they resorted to prediction models that showed a probabilistic situation: they placed almost all of Spain in the warm tertile. This means that there was a very high probability that the average temperature for the entire quarter was among the 33% warmest winters in the historical record. The chance of it being a colder winter was just 10%.

When it comes to rainfall, the truth is that They didn’t get too wet at the AEMET by giving the same probability for it to be wetter, drier or normal than those of other years. He gave all of these 33%.

January 2026. When we stop looking at the probabilistic models and move on to meteorological reality, we already see that there are substantial differences. And it is that Throughout this month we have had a severe entry of arctic air, notices in all communities and relevant snowfalls in the Cantabrian Mountains and the Pyrenees. It’s a bookish winter episode.

Data is still missing. A freezing week does not make a cold winter, and everything indicates that after these storms that we are enduring right now, temperatures will rebalance between 1 and 3 degrees above the table. And for the AEMET this winter we have not yet had any cold wave which would mark the third consecutive year without them in Spain.

According to the historical series, since 1975 the duration of cold waves on the peninsula has been reduced by 1.2 days per decade and that is why this winter is presented as one more to reduce this average in our climatological history.

The NAO factor. The models certainly cannot see the climatological “day by day” coming very far in advance, since seasonal predictions, which are based on systems like ECMWFhave limited resolution. In this case we are talking about contextual tools for energy management or agriculture, not a “horoscope” to know if we will be able to ski without snow in the mountains.

What the European winter climate largely depends on is the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Arctic Oscillation (AO). In this case a positive NAO indicates a westward, warm and humid circulation. But if we talk about a negative NAO, it translates into a blockage that allows polar air to escape to the south, which is what is happening to us right now.

The problem. It is precisely because these coupled atmosphere-ocean models have a low ability to anticipate what phases the NAO will be in months in advance. They get the global thermal signal very well, such as background warming, but it is difficult for them to see the specific sequence of cold entries.

A change of pattern. The debate about whether the “AEMET fails” with its predictions usually hides a deeper climate reality. And a “warm winter” in the current context of climate change does not mean the disappearance of winter, but rather it means that mild days and mild minimum temperatures are becoming more frequent, and cold waves are less common and less lasting.

Next weeks. If we look beyond this week full of water we find ourselves again faced with uncertainty. According to the prediction made by the AEMETit is expected that for the week of February 2 to 8 a similar meteorological pattern will continue with Atlantic storms at our altitude, so there would be water throughout all of Spain.

What the models predict, although everything can change, is that it will be presented in the west of the peninsula an extremely wet period over the next two weekswith rainfall that would be counted per liters of water in very specific areas of Spain and Portugal.

In Xataka | We have always believed that London is very rainy and that Barcelona is not. The only problem is that it’s a lie