with a large amount of water but no trace of polar cold

January is going to say goodbye with great weather instability that we are already experiencing in our flesh throughout the entire Spanish territory. If we look at the weather maps for this week that begins today, the conclusion is quite unanimous. both in the AEMET as in the European ECMWF prediction model: stability has been broken. Starting today we enter a regime of humid winds accompanied by rainfall well above average on the Atlantic slopewith special impact on Galicia and the central system.

Rain, a lot of rain. If we look at the forecasts on a national scale, we are facing very marked rainfall this week. And we are not talking about normal rains, but rather accumulated ones that in the northeast could exceed the usual average for these dates by 60%. Something that responds to saying goodbye to the storm Ingrid to give way to the storm Joseph that will affect Galicia above all.

Galicia is one of the points where accumulations are expected to reach 90 liters per extra square meter of anomaly with peaks of up to 150 liters per square meter in orographic points. But mountain systems such as the Sierra de Gredos, the Pyrenees and the high areas of Andalusia will also receive significant amounts of water and snow due to the orographic enhancement of the southwest winds.

The AEMET. In a post on his blog, The public agency points out that this week will be marked by the passage of “fronts associated with Atlantic storms, which would leave rain in most of the Peninsula and the Balearic Islands.” Likewise, it points to the great intensity that they will have in Galicia, which will undoubtedly bear the brunt throughout this week.

The thermal paradox. One of the key points that highlight the predictions is in the thermometer. Anyone could imagine very low temperatures accompanying this amount of precipitation that is expected, but the reality is very different, since we are not facing a polar cold wave.

The models indicate in this case that since the winds come from the Atlantic, the air arrives warm and loaded with humidity. This will keep temperatures above the climatic measurement as the maximum temperatures will be between 10 and 16ºC, while the minimum temperatures will remain between 8ºC and 12ºC, avoiding severe frosts in low areas.

The snow. In this sense we can rest assured, since according to the AEMET, the snow will be limited mainly to the mountain systems of the peninsula. However, we must be attentive to Wednesday, January 28 and Thursday, January 29, since a specific drop in elevation after the passage of a cold front could leave snowfall in areas of the northern plateau and medium-low elevations, although it will be a transitory episode within a generally mild environment.

Why does this happen? To understand this carousel of storms you have to look at the index of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Currently, it is in a negative phase, which means that the Azores anticyclone weakens or shifts, allowing storms to circulate at lower latitudes (i.e. over Spain) instead of deviating towards northern Europe.

Images | AEMET

In Xataka | We have always believed that London is very rainy and that Barcelona is not. The only problem is that it’s a lie