The train of storms that threatens Spain is just the beginning of the problem

What is happening? What is going to happen? As I write these lines, nine autonomous communities they have yellow notices due to rain, wind and other coastal phenomena. And the reason, as we have been repeating for the last few days, is a “train” of fronts that comes directly from the bowels of the Atlantic and will cross the peninsula.

The forecast, in data. The models are beginning to converge and the forecasts are quite clear:

• Waves of up to five meters on the Cantabrian coast and off the coast of Galicia. Winds will easily reach 61 kilometers per hour.
• No particularly intense rains are expected in the coming days (the peak may be 15 l/m2 in areas of Huelva and Cádiz). Although, yes, those accumulated in Galicia, Zamora, Ávila and Cáceres may be important — above all, in a context of saturated soils.
• The winds, for their part, will be above 70 kilometers per hour throughout the north of the peninsula.

And, with these figures, why is it important? Because of what is known as ‘multiplier risk’: we are not going to face any peak of intense rain, but the recurrence of fronts will increase operational risks.

It is the meteorological equivalent of a ‘calabobos’: it seems that it does not get wet, but it ends up with half of Spain completely soaked.

The only question is whether an effective “atmospheric river” is formed (or not). That is, if the humid and warm air from the Gulf of Mexico integrates into one of these fronts and a greater blow is produced.

A “normal” circulation in an “abnormal” context. Because, as it is worth remembering, the cold days of recent weeks are beginning to not be normal on the peninsula. And, although this relatively active western circulation is, the arrival of successive fronts complicates the situation: there is a lot of water accumulated in the form of snow.

So we go back to normal. A normality that is summarized in waiting to see how long it takes for the storm corridor to close and waiting for the swamps to continue filling. Summer will be here sooner than it seems.

Image | ECMWF

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