Among the many issues that keep us Spaniards up at night, there is one that usually repeats in the CIS surveys as the great national problem: housing. It has been like this in the last few months. And everything indicates that it will continue to be so (even more so if possible) in the months to come. At least that’s what a consumer report suggests. advanced by SER in which it is warned that Spain is about to see thousands of rental contracts expire, leases signed in the middle of the pandemic and that now face a market in the middle of climbing.
The big question is… Is there a way to avoid it?
Calendar Earrings. March 2025 was a month to remember. He friday the 14th Five years have passed since the declaration of the state of alarm due to Covid-19, which led many Spanish media to remember How those days of confinement and masks were experienced, what has changed since then and whether we are (or not) more prepared to face a health crisis.
For many Spaniards, the fiftieth anniversary of the pandemic represented something else: the end of their rental contracts, leases that they signed in a time of uncertainty and expire now, with prices skyrocketing.
Two dates, two scenarios. Although Idealista is not an official source, it is good to take a look at your price chart to understand what has changed in the rental market over the last five years. After several years of almost uninterrupted escalation, towards the summer of 2020 the price per m2 began to moderate and even became cheaper for several months. That ‘truce’ coincided with the worst of the pandemic. In mid-2022, prices rose again and since then their rise has been more pronounced, with an increase of almost 10% in the last year.
As figures always say more than a long explanation, here are three taken from the national average of rents calculated by Idealista. According to its registry, in April 2020 the m2 was quoted at 10.7 euros, in December 2021 it had dropped to 10.3 and now it is already 14.6. If we talk about stressed markets like Madrid, the progression is even clearer: Between June 2020 and 2021, rents fell by 12.3% and since then they have risen by 59.4%.
Why does 2020 matter so much? Simple. Because the law establishes that rental contracts last five years if the landlord is an individual or seven, if the ‘landlord’ is a legal entity. During this period, contracts are automatically extended annually and prices are usually updated based on the CPI or IRAV (if the agreements were signed from 2023 onwards).
If we take into account that the majority of rental homes in Spain (85%) are in the hands of small owners, which means that the thousands of contracts signed between 2020 and 2021, in a declining pandemic market, are already expiring or about to do so. The problem is that now the scenario is very different from that of five years ago. So much so that some warn that affected tenants will suddenly find themselves at the mercy of skyrocketing prices. 30%. And that is worrying since many homes they are suffocated already for the income.
Many figures, same reading. How many contracts are we talking about? How many leases are expiring or about to expire? Over the last few months, several estimates have circulated that do not always coincide, but do share a common denominator: they show that the expiration of lease contracts will affect a considerable number of households.
In September Llogateres Union warned that in 2026 in Catalonia alone, 119,000 signed rental contracts would end in 2021, an estimate that, I remembereddoes not take into account those that may be subject to extension. More or less around the same dates, the Madrid Tenants Union spoke of the extinction of 500,000 rental contracts in just two years, which led him to warn of “the largest wave of renewals in a long time.”
Probably the estimate that more has sounded It is however the one that use Add and the Minister of Consumption, Social Rights and Agenda 2030 has been in charge of emphasizing. Pablo Bustinduy has asked to the PSOE that they be extended automatically 300,000 contracts of rent that would be about to expire.
Is there more data? Yes. The last one announced this week the SER chain, which on Thursday released an internal document from the Ministry of Social Rights that maintains that in 2020 568,538 rental contracts were signed, 632,369 in 2021 and 405,234 in 2022. The data is conclusive and shows the considerable number of households that could soon face a dilemma: stay in their apartments paying much higher rents or look for a new home.
That does not mean that they should be interpreted as closed calculations. The figures (which do not include Euskadi or Navarra) may include contracts that have already been canceled or have a duration of more than five years. Another key factor is how many homes with contracts about to expire are located in areas that already have declared themselves stressedwhich implies certain restrictions on prices.
Just one year ago the Catalan Generalitat pointed which was on its way to 271 municipalities with rent containment measures, although that does not mean that all its tenants benefit. Barcelona, Bilbao or San Sebastian They have already been subject to the measure. Las Palmas de Gran Canaria either Santiago They have requested it.
From agencies to politics. The topic is relevant enough (the report talks about a considerable number of potential victims) so that it has fully entered the political debate. To Sumar the answer is clear. The minority partner of the Government has been complaining for a long time that hundreds of thousands of rents about to expire be extended.
The idea is simple: freeze your income three years (five in areas with stressed markets) to prevent the families who occupy those houses from ending up in a vulnerable situation. From the Ministry of Housing they bet for the declarations of stressed areas and the effectiveness of the State Plan 2026-2030.
Images | Emil Gabrovski (Unsplash) and Gregor Schram (Unsplash)
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