2026 has not yet started but it has already managed to produce the first bad news: the light goes up

There is one month left until 2026 begins and the January slope already has a clear protagonist: light. The electricity bill will start the year with the largest simultaneous review of regulated costs since 2020. The proposals of the Government and the energy regulator point to an increase that will affect all homes, regardless of what they consume.

Without anesthesia. The National Markets and Competition Commission (CNMC) has put into public hearing its toll proposal for 2026 – the part of the bill that finances the electrical networks – and proposes a global increase of close to 4%. This update has two pillars:

• Transportation, which are the large electric highways, will increase by 12.1%.
• Distribution, which are the networks that reach homes and businesses, will increase by 2.5%.

With these changes, the total money allocated to maintaining and expanding electrical networks will reach 6,608 million in 2026. In addition, to this increase we must add that of the chargesset by the Government. According to Five Daysthe Ministry for the Ecological Transition proposes increasing them by 10.5% to cover, above all, the cost of regulated renewable energies (Recore), which will grow by 37%.

The fixed part is in charge again. The electricity bill is divided into two large blocks:

• The cost of energy, which depends on what each user consumes.
• Regulated costs (tolls and charges), which are always paid.

This new year, the regulated part once again gains prominence. According to the specialized portal Tarifaluzhorathe combination of tolls and charges will increase between 2.8% and 4.8% for households. It may seem like a moderate increase, but it affects the amount paid even if consumption drops.

Furthermore, the CNMC report estimates that domestic customers with PVPC 2.0 TD rate will see a final increase of approximately 0.6% on their bill, thanks in part to the slight expected growth in demand and the greater number of consumers among whom to spread the costs.

A small print that worries the sector. As Cinco Días detailsthe Government has prepared its proposal for charges under the hypothesis that consumption will grow by 4.5% in 2026. This figure is not minor: the greater the demand, the more the regulated costs are diluted among users and the lower the impact per receipt.

However, the problem is that the CNMC – which sets tolls – does not share that optimism. The regulator foresees an increase of only 2.3%. And here a delicate scenario opens up: if demand does not grow as much as the Government expects, the system will not collect what was expected.

The tolls and charges are calculated on the basis that there will be more kilowatts consumed in 2026. If they are not ultimately consumed, there will be a lack of money to cover the regulated costs, which are already on the rise due to the Recore renewables, the expansion of networks and the adjustments from previous years.

If we get ashy. The return of the tariff deficit is at stake. In other words, putting ourselves in the worst possible scenario, if revenues prove insufficient, Spain could return to a known scenario: tariff deficit. In other words, when the bill does not cover the costs of the electrical system, a hole is created that is financed as debt and drags on for years.

It took Spain more than a decade to absorb the deficit accumulated between 2000 and 2013—more than 28 billion euros—and the sector fears a partial repeat of that cycle. A gap of just two percentage points between the demand forecast by the Government and the realistic estimate of the CNMC can make the difference between a balanced system or a stressed one. And all in a year in which tolls and charges will rise at the same time for the first time since 2020.

And why will everything go up at once? Because in 2026 several impact factors coincide:

• More investment in networks to integrate renewables and electrification.
• Higher cost of Recore renewables, which must be compensated according to their contracts.
• The cumulative impact of the electricity blackout of 360 million, that the marketers still carry.
• Pending adjustments from previous exercises.

2026: a year that starts uphill. The electricity bill will be the first notice of a year marked by the structural increase in the cost of the electrical system and the need to accelerate investments that sustain the energy transition. More robust networks, more renewables and a more complex system imply higher operating costs. And, once again, it will be consumers who notice in January.

Image | freepik

Xataka | Spain needs to modernize its electrical grid, so the remuneration rate has increased. The effect will be noticeable in the next five years