If until a few days ago we looked at the sky with uncertainty, the last few days have dispelled the doubts. According to official notices from the State Meteorological Agency (AEMET), Spain faces a particularly relevant winter episode this weekend. The question, as meteorologists indicate, is no longer whether we are going to see snow, but the precision of “where” and the intensity of “how much.”
Where is it going to snow? This weekend’s alert has focused above all on the northern third of the peninsulawhere the orange and yellow alert are the protagonists due to the heavy snowfalls that are expected. Something that is especially worrying due to the implications it may have on road mobility, since as we have seen in the past, Spain is still not fully prepared for heavy snowfalls.
The polar air will cause a collapse in the snow levelwhich could drop to 300-400 meters in areas of the eastern Cantabrian Sea and the upper Ebro with an orange alert. This means that the snow will not just stay on the summits, but could affect cities and main communication routes.
The most affected areas. There are some areas that are undoubtedly more affected than others. The Picos de Europa and the Cantabrian Mountains stand out above all, with special attention to the provinces of León, Palencia and Burgos. Significant rainfall is also expected in the Pyrenees and Central and Iberian Systems that will affect Navarra, Aragón and La Rioja.
In general, the communities that maintain an alert are Asturias, Cantabria, the Basque Country, Castilla y León, and Catalonia, along with inland areas of the eastern peninsula.
Chronology of the cold. This episode stands out for its thermal harshness. Falls of up to -5 ºC and widespread frosts are expected in the interior, which will be moderate in mountain areas.
The peak of this cold wave is expected especially between Thursday night and Friday morning. Starting on Saturday this will happen a little since although the atmosphere will continue to be wintery, it is expected that the extreme cold and snowfall will begin to subside, being restricted to mountain areas as the air stabilizes.
A look into the future. The big question in this case is quite clear: will it be like this all winter? And this blast of polar cold in November could make us think that a Siberian winter awaits us, but the long-term forecasts of the AEMET and international models such as ECMWF suggest a more complex scenario.
The general trend is that despite this abrupt start, winter will be warmer than usual, especially in the east of the peninsula and in the Balearic Islands with a probability of 70%. If we look back, we come from a winter that It was the seventh warmest on record.and the underlying trend towards softening temperatures continues. In addition, the average temperature in mainland Spain was also 0.7ºC above the average for this month, making it the eighth warmest December of the 21st century.
However, we should not store thick coats at the back of the closet. And although the beginning of winter aims to be mild and dry due to the anticyclonic influence, some experts warn of a possible colder second phase. Factors such as the La Niña phenomenon or possible alterations of the stratospheric polar vortex could generate instability towards the end of the season.
This would facilitate new evacuations of cold air towards mid-latitudes, causing late snowy episodes similar to the one we are experiencing this weekend.
It is not an exact science. Logically, these are predictive models that are made in the long term and looking at the trends of recent years. Obviously we are going to be cold, but not the cold that could have been thirty years ago if the trend as such is followed. Although this abrupt beginning has undoubtedly given us a very different perception than what may end up happening.
Images | Chanan Greenblatt
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