There is a corner of Spain that God has taken a liking to: Alicante, Murcia and Almería

“In Murcia there has to be a tarp or something, it’s not normal.” It José Montiel said while looking at a map with the rain that is going to fall in Spain in the coming days and the truth is that it is difficult to disagree.

In the last few hours, we have had the combination of a trough and a river of humidity that have produced a squall line over the peninsula, leaving in its wake intense winds, considerable rains and many storms.

Everywhere, less in the southeast.

What happens in Alicante, Murcia and Almería? Strictly speaking, nothing new happens. The southeastern corner of the peninsula has been recording national minimums throughout the modern period. It is enough to look at the stations around Cabo de Gata to discover that the annual accumulations are very low (around 200mm/year) and if we go a little further inland, to Tabernas for example, the figures are only about 50mm higher. Although with enormous irregularity, yes.

It is not surprising, therefore, that desertification is devouring that corner of Spain. Nor does the Köppen-Geiger classification indicate that these are the most arid climates in the country (rivaling only some areas of the Canary Islands).

But why? There are three fundamental reasons that explain why the southeast of the country receives so little water.

1. The Azores anticyclone: The great Atlantic plug affects a large part of the country, it is true. We must not forget that, according to the latest studies, Spain faces the driest climate in its last 1,200 years and the progressive strengthening of that anticyclone is to blame. However, due to the trajectory of the winds in the northern hemisphere, not all parts of the territory are affected equally. You just have to compare the climate regime of Galicia with that of Murcia.
2. The Betic mountain ranges: Although we sometimes tend to forget it, in the south of Spain there are a series of really high mountain ranges. The highest mountain on the peninsula, in fact, is in the Baetic mountain ranges. These constitute a true orographic wall that intercepts humidity and generates a very long rainfall shadow over the southeastern coast. Come on, the water stays west of the mountains.
3. Evapotranspiration totally uncontrolled: We are talking about an area with very high insolation and very high evapotranspiration. It’s not just that it rains little, it evaporates a lot and that generates a “deserted” terrain that is unable to take advantage of the rains when they arrive. And that, in an area where DANAs are key, is a problem.

Everything is getting worse. We might think that all this is normal and yet it is not. We are inserted in a time of changes and IPCC forecasts are gloomy: to the Mediterranean as it is one of the places in the world where the reduction in precipitation is most directly linked to warming. It is estimated a drop of 4% for each degree more in the central and northern Mediterranean.

The best example is this same 2025. Despite the historic rains that have occurred this yearthe balance of the southeast will be bad. And, while illegal water trafficking schemes continue to grow, There are initiatives to continue building transfers that they bring to the region the liquid that does not fall from the sky. The problem is that, whether we want to see it or not, we need more far-reaching changes than what we currently seem to be able to assume.

Image | ECMWF

In Xataka | Long periods of drought are going to become more and more normal. It’s time to get used to them