We have been thinking for years that, after the midlife crisis, old age is synonymous with happiness. This researcher thinks it’s a hoax

We are happy during adolescence and late youth, but as the years go by we become increasingly sadder, more unhappy, more miserable. At some point, in our late 40s to early 50s, we hit rock bottom. And once there everything tends to improve.

“It’s statistics,” we said. What we did not suspect was that the statistics could be ‘trick’.

Happiness is U-shaped. “Happiness is a slippery slope until we hit the bottom at some undetermined point in middle age. From there, it climbs back to the levels of youth.” That’s what I said a 2008 study than by Blanchflower and Oswald with data from more than half a million people.

Over the following years ( here an example from 2017), studied in some detail how firm this U-shaped trend was; Everything seemed to indicate that this was the case. Until Fabian Kratz and Josef Brüdel from the Ludwig Maximalian University of Munich they realized of a small – possible – problem.

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A fundamental problem. What if happiness steadily decreases with age and what we see in the aggregate graphs is just a statistical effect? Kratz has been studying for years happiness and, as explained in New Scientistis increasingly convinced that the U simply does not exist.

Reviewing the scientific literature, the authors found studies that justify a “stability“in happiness throughout the years; a”increase” or progressive descent; a inverted U; a U normal; and a curve like of waves (promotions, relegations). The problem is “that all studies on age and happiness have incurred biases that have distorted their results.”

The other form of happiness. By correcting them, Fabian Kratz and Josef Brüdel came to the conclusion that it is true that happiness shows some stability around the last 50, but it does not rise at any time.

Kratz and Brüderl (2021)

But why? It is important to keep in mind that this work is essentially methodological. But Kratz’s central idea is that previous studies they didn’t realize that “after a certain age, happiness seems to increase only because unhappy people have already died.”

The least happy people they tend to die before, which would cause an overrepresentation of the happiest at older ages (literally, as said our colleague Andrés Mohorte, pure survivor bias).

According to this theory, “that old popular story” through which retirement would open a window towards a fuller and more satisfying life is just that, a story: a lie.

Or, perhaps, a strategy. Because, in short, “there is a lot of evidence about how humans experience a bassoon psychological in middle age” (Blanchflower and Oswald, 2007; Steptoe, Deaton and Stone, 2015; Graham and Pettinato, 2002), but there is very little about the relationship between that downturn – that unhappiness – and quality of life.

As we said quite a few years ago“we’re about to see what happens to the millennials when they become unhappy” and maybe that is behind a part generational battles. But facing the future with the certainty that things are going to improve is not the same as facing the future with the certainty that things are going to get worse.

The science of happiness has never been so depressing.

Image | Garloncio

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