is teaching you how to use it in a very specific way

In July the Russian formula to multiply its drones was known: it was called “refrigeration units” and it came straight from Beijing. The surprise was not capital considering that Ukraine had already opened drones from Moscow and had confirmed the chinese contribution to the contest. It was sensed that the rapprochement between both nations was extensive. Now, a handful of leaked documents have shown that Russia not only sells weapons to China, it also teaches it how to use them.

A new axis. The publication of hundreds of documents leaked by the hacktivist group Black Moon has clearly revealed a scenario that was intuited until recently, but for which there was no such concrete evidence: Russia and China have woven a much deeper military cooperation than their joint maneuvers or their public speeches show.

The files, analyzed by the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) in London and also reviewed by media as Associated Press and Washington Postshow signed agreements, material lists, delivery schedules and training programs that point to a central objective: preparing the Chinese airborne forces for an eventual invasion of Taiwan.

Sale of Russian systems. According to the documentsMoscow promised to sell Beijing a complete batch of equipment for an airborne battalion: 37 amphibious assault vehicles BMD-4M11 self-propelled anti-tank guns Sprut-SDM111 armored personnel carriers BTR-MDM and several command and observation vehicles.

The contract, valued at more than 500 million of dollars, also includes special parachute systems capable of launching loads of up to 190 kilos from altitudes of 8,000 meters, with a glide radius of up to 80 kilometers. This material, adapted to integrate Chinese software and communication systems, would allow special forces to penetrate enemy territory without having to directly enter their airspace.

Chinese technological leap. Beyond hardware, the agreements contemplate trainings given by Russian specialists both in Russia and China, in which tactics, procedures and command and control systems tested in real war scenarios are transferred.

For Beijing, this component is even more valuable than the armored vehicles themselves: Russia has decades of experience in airborne operations that China has not yet been able to accumulate. While the People’s Liberation Army modernize in a hurry its arsenal with the goal of equaling or surpassing the United States before 2050, turns to Moscow to fill a critical gap in doctrine and experience.

An island on the horizon. The analysts match in which the reinforcement of Chinese airborne capacity point directly to Taiwan. The island invasion plans require not only an amphibious landing massive in its few beaches suitable for this, but also the rapid seizure of strategic infrastructure in the interior: airports, ports and logistics centers that allow sustaining the initial effort in the face of a possible US intervention. To achieve this, Chinese military planners consider it essential to small unit deployment elite, well equipped and capable of infiltration by air.

The russian experience In operations of this type it is especially valuable. Although Moscow failed in February 2022 while attempting to seize Hostomel Airport and open an airlift to kyiv, their tactics, even failed, offer concrete lessons on what should be avoided and what could be improved. China, which has never used its airborne forces in actual combat, may incorporate that learning without paying the cost in lives that it meant for Russia.

Taiwan Marine Corps Battalion

Exchange of interests. The alliance is not explained only by Chinese will. Russia also gets crucial benefits. Burdened by sanctions and with a military-industrial complex stretched to the limit by the war in Ukraine, Moscow desperately needs financing and markets.

Becoming a supplier of equipment and know-how to Beijing ensures income while drawing China into a conflict that, if it broke out, would force the United States to divide its attention between Europe and the Indo-Pacific. For the Kremlin, distract Washington It is as valuable as selling an armored vehicle.

The “enemy” friend. If you like, the agreement also illustrates the asymmetry of the relationship: while China receives technology, doctrine and practical experience that it can absorb and replicate quickly (as it has already done with transport planes Il-76transformed into their own Y-20), Russia obtain liquidity and geopolitical relevance. The risk for Moscow is that, in a few years, its partner will also surpass it in this area and it will be left without a card to play.

Impact on the region. There is no doubt, for Taiwan, the news it’s alarming. The transfer of airborne capabilities reinforces fears that a Chinese attack will combine precision bombing raids against air defenses with paratroop operations and rapid landings by armored vehicles at key points in the interior.

The own military exercises this year’s taiwanese included drills to repel an air attack against the Taoyuan international airport, aware that Beijing could try to replicate a “D-Day” there with Asian characteristics.

And for Washington. The dimension of cooperation also worries the United States. The Pentagon’s efforts to redirect resources towards the Indo-Pacificwithout abandoning the European front, become more complicated given the evidence that Russia and China already act as an almost indivisible bloc. Jack Watling of RUSI sums it up: “The Russians have become enablers for the Chinese, and that makes their security challenges almost impossible to separate.”

A puzzle. If you like, what emerges from these leaks It is not a simple arms contract, but the skeleton of an interoperability that can alter the military balance in Asia-Pacific. China gets a crash course in airborne warfare from a Russian manual, and Russia earn financing and the hope of forcing the United States to fight on two fronts.

In that equation, Taiwan appears increasingly vulnerableand the horizon of 2027 As the date set for its possible invasion, it stops seeming like a hypothetical scenario and becomes an accelerating calendar.

Image | Eric Kanalstein / Flickr (CC BY-NC-ND 2.0), Picryl, 總統府

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