The European Union has a new tax to punish fuel consumption. And that implies, without any doubt, a increase in the price of gasoline and diesel that we use in our day to day. But also in which carriers need to work.
And that has consequences.
EMISSION RIGHTS. It is not really new, because it is part of a package of measures whose reform It was already approved in 2018. We talk about EU trade emission rights trade regimealso known as the ETS2 that will change in 2027 to impose a new tax on the consumption of fuels emitted CO2.
This new tax applies to the fuel consumed in homes and, of course, to transport (both particular and merchandise) that until now had been left out. And that has a clear result: the price of gasoline will rise.
How does it work? With the change that will arrive in 2027, it will be the fuel suppliers that have to buy emission rights for carbon dioxide of the products they sell. For each ton of CO2 generated by that fuel, a price will be paid to the European Union.
The main problem is that we do not know what increase we face. EMISSION RIGHTS They will be bought by auction So the price fluctuates. At the moment, the most optimistic estimates indicate a price of about 48 euros per ton of CO2, according to The Energy Newspaperbut Bloomberg Nef Bet on a substantial increase in the coming years and aim at 122 euros per ton of CO2 in 2030.
These increases can reach an increase in demand but also by speculation with their price, with companies buying emission rights to have them reserve when considering that they will be more expensive in the future.
What can we expect? When we go to the gas station, a rise in the fuel price, of course. How much? That is the big doubt. Obviously, this new cost for the supplier should fall in cascade to the final consumer. The doubt is whether something of it will be absorbed along the way or, on the contrary, it will affect completely.
According to the European Commission, the expected increase with those 48 euros/ton of CO2 is 0.11 euros/liter of gasoline and 0.13 euros/liter of diesel. That is, in a 50 -liter deposit we talk about an increase between five and six euros.
Other sources point to a larger cost. As we have seen, everything will depend on how much the supplier costs the right of issuance and how much the client can affect without the competition. Distributor companies point to ABC that the price will be between 0.15 and 0.25 euros/liter.
The hidden climb. But beyond the cost for The driver who fills his carthe new tax points to another problem: a general increase in the cost of life. In that same article of ABC, Transport associations point to wait for an increase of up to 45 cents/liter of CO2.
It would be necessary to see if the increase reaches these levels but what is certain is that the cost of fuel It has a direct impact on inflation. Because if moving the product is a greater expense, the ultimate seller has to raise the price to continue maintaining the profits …
In greater or lesser average depending on the product, what is certain is that both increases usually go hand in hand. Keep in mind that ETS2 also affects the price of gas, so it is an extra cost than adding to the equation.
Worry. As is logical, the first accounts have already begun to look for solutions. From the Bank of Spain they point out that inflation can rebound in 2027 to 2.5% after a year 2026 more restrained. In Belgium they calculate That an average home will pay between 250 and 400 euros more a year.
At the moment, the system will have a market stability reserve. The idea is that if the price shoots, the European Union can release emission bonds to control the price and cushion the increase. In addition, it has been designed has designed the Social Fund for Climate (SCF), a fund of at least 86.7 billion euros between 2026 and 2032 to surrender to the most vulnerable families and small businesses.
Photo | Xataka
GIPHY App Key not set. Please check settings